Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Timberwolves have another opportunity to take down a wounded Western Conference foe at home, and they should be able to capitalize again.
This is entirely dependent on the status of Nikola Jokic for the Nuggets, though, who is currently listed as questionable. With the Wolves laying this many points and the number moving towards them, it’s relatively safe to assume Jokic will indeed miss this game. That makes Denver extremely limited in what they can do, especially inside against Karl-Anthony Towns, who is fresh off a triple-double.
The Wolves are also likely to get D’Angelo Russell back for this game, boosting an already hot Minnesota offense. I’ll trust the line movement here, but verify that Jokic is out tonight in a game the Wolves need and should get easily.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Brooklyn Nets/Phoenix Suns Over 229 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
I’ll add another important injury caveat to this game involving James Harden’s status. The Beard was able to practice yesterday and is listed as questionable for tonight. Obviously, his presence is a massive boost to the Brooklyn offense. Again there are clues in the line moves for this game that suggests Harden will play, as the spread has ticked down and the total has risen sharply.
The Suns are still extremely shorthanded, and it’s been taking a toll on their highly-rated defense. They’ve been allowing a significant amount of points to suspect offenses the past couple weeks, and the Nets can still light it up against most any teams with Harden and Kyrie Irving. These are two of the top three shooting teams in the league, so with Harden available I’m seeing an over here.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Texas/Texas Tech Over 122.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Counting on enough scoring from these two defensive-oriented teams can be a lot to ask sometimes, but this total is just too low.
This is a compelling game with Chris Beard returning to Lubbock for the first time, and the matchup of top-10 defenses saw this total actually open a few points lower. But the market has corrected that, and I have this game being played in the 60s, so that movement is justified. What gets lost with the focus on defense is the shooting ability for these teams, with the Red Raiders actually 30th in shooting percentage and both teams tied for 75th in offensive rating.
The past 4 meetings between these schools have gone over this total, averaging 135.5 points. And these teams are a combined 11-5 over tonight’s total in Big1 2 play so far. With enough shooting on both teams, I’m expecting another over on such a low number.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Providence +3.5 @ St. John’s (-110): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN
If you want to back a team that just consistently finds ways to get it done, then Providence is the squad for you. The Friars come into this game with a sterling 6-0 ATS record when catching points, and now find themselves getting more than a full possession again. And it’s against a St. John’s team they’ve already beaten handily this season who is just 4-9 ATS on their home floor.
The line movement towards St. John’s worries me, as does the revenge angle for the Red Storm, but this just feels like a spot where I have to punch back against the market. Providence always seems to be in close games, with 6 of their 9 Big East games decided by single digits. They’re certainly the more talented team, and if the Friars continue their run of good bounces they’ll be in this one at the end, so I’m taking the points.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Canisius @ Siena -3.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN3
Siena has been playing the role of underdog for a good majority of the season, so being the favorite is not a position the Saints are used to. But this is still a short enough number for me to trust an under-the-radar team against a Canisius squad who has really struggled in this spot.
The Golden Griffins have covered just one conference road game, and hold a 3-8 road ATS record on the season. All of their seven MAAC losses have come by more than this number, and I see it again here. Siena has been strong in their conference home games, and while they won’t impress you much offensively they should have enough to get by a weak opponent tonight.
Tiny Nick is 557-446 ATS (+76.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
