Locks
NBA (0.25 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Chicago Bulls Over 240 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The north of 240 total has become an endangered species with this NBA season starting out so low-scoring. So when oddsmakers put one up, there’s a very good reason behind it.
Timberwolves road games just keep turning into ridiculous shootouts, even against lesser offensive teams than they’ll face in Chicago tonight. Their past 12 on the road have averaged 243 points, part of why at 22-7 Minnesota has by far the best road over record. The Bulls won’t be afraid to get into one of those shootouts either, with their past 8 games averaging 241.5 points and one of the league’s better over records in home games.
The defense just hasn’t been there for the Wolves on the road, especially with allowing 132 points to Sacramento on Wednesday night. Having to face the league’s 2nd-best shooting percentage team won’t help, but it should help get the game over this massive total.
NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks -8 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
It could get ugly out there tonight for this new-look Spurs team that was busy at the trade deadline. It’s likely several of their new pieces won’t play tonight, putting a lot of backups on the floor against a Hawks team that’s mostly full strength. That Hawks roster already blew out the Spurs by 18 on the road in their first meeting this season.
Atlanta has been excellent at home recently, on an 8-1 run both ATS and straight up with a plus-9.6 average margin in those games. This is also a matchup where the Hawks are built to run away, as they are excellent from beyond the arc but the Spurs almost refuse to shoot from deep. A Hawks team that’s gaining confidence should maximize this opportunity to get a comfortable win.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) UConn +1 @ Xavier (-110): 6:00 PM CT on FS1
This spread has come crashing down from the opener of 3, and like the market, I think the wrong team is favored here. It’s because of a seemingly annual tradition where you should auto-fade Xavier around this time of year. Musketeers coach Travis Steele just can’t seem to keep his team on track late into the season, and their current 2-7 ATS run speaks for itself. There have been some inexcusable and deflating losses to the dregs of the Big East, and it doesn’t get easier tonight.
UConn has had its own rough patches this season, but I see a team that is returning to health at the right time. The Huskies have the size down low and the perimeter defenders to frustrate Xavier’s drive-and-kick style. Let’s not forget that UConn handed top-ranked Auburn one of their two losses this season, so they can play with anyone. With another February funk hitting this Xavier squad, I see UConn stealing this one on the road.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) St. Bonaventure @ St. Louis -5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
St. Bonaventure was supposed to be the clear-cut favorite in the A10 this season, but that simply has not shown up on the court. Instead, it’s this St. Louis team that is making a run at the conference title instead of having a down year. The Billikens have now won 7 of 8, with 6 of those wins in dominant fashion and posting an excellent 9-4 ATS record at home.
By comparison, the Bonnies have just 2 road wins on the year, single-digit affairs against the 2 bottom teams in the conference. They just aren’t playing well, particularly on the road, and have to deal with the home hype spot for St. Louis here. The Bonnies were supposed to be elite on defense this season and have been anything but, so I see an excellent SLU offense driving them to a comfortable win here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 581-466 ATS (+77.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
