Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Wizards/Indiana Pacers Over 225.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports IN
It really boils down to if the Pacers are playing, I’m pretty much auto-betting the over. There are a select few opponents who are exceptions to this rule, but the Wizards are not one of them.
That’s especially true in home games, where Indiana leads the NBA with a 20-10 record to the over. They’ve also gone over this total in 7 of their past 8 games overall, and 8 of their past 10 home games. Defense just really isn’t their priority. Even though the Wizards are missing leading scorer Bradley Beal, they should be able to put up plenty of points against this bad defensive club.
The previous two meetings this season need to be somewhat ignored because of how different the rosters are now, even though they averaged 236 points. But it does speak to a general lack of defense when these squads get together. With Indiana also on no rest after a high-scoring game in Milwaukee last night, I’ll count on a lack of defense and plenty of points again here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers/Memphis Grizzlies Over 228 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
These teams have not played particularly high-scoring games this season, with their previous 3 meetings averaging just 211 points. But they haven’t faced off since before Christmas, and this Memphis team is on a completely different level now.
Even with Ja Morant resting his ankle last night, the Grizzlies made it 6 straight games of scoring 120-plus points. That cashed a seventh straight over against a New Orleans Pelicans team that had been playing fairly decent defense recently. I would expect Morant to be available here after being a game-time scratch last night. That will definitely boost their offense against a Blazers team that still ranks just 27th in defensive rating.
I’m fairly confident that Memphis will do their part in getting this game over the total. While this is a new-look Blazers team after the deadline, they still love to get up a lot of 3-point attempts and Memphis is not great at defending the three. That should allow them to contribute enough offense against a tired Grizzlies squad to get this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Furman/Western Carolina Under 142 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Sharp money has really caught on to the under trends for these teams, so be cautious of how far this total steams down. But I still think this should be a very low-scoring game given how awful Western Carolina has been on offense. The 8-2 under run for the Catamounts has been fueled by them averaging just 61.7 PPG in that stretch, including a mere 50 against this Furman team a month ago.
There will be a ton of shots from deep in this game, as both teams are top-11 in 3-point attempts. But those have simply not been falling for WCU, as they’re 288th in 3-point percentage and 348th in overall field goal percentage. Furman is a far better offense and one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, but their slow pace and improving defense has created unders in 7 of their past 10 games. When combined with WCU’s offensive futility, I’m seeing another low-scoring game here.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Vanderbilt @ Auburn -13.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on SEC Network
Is Auburn playing at home? If yes, bet on Auburn. It’s really that simple of a decision, as the Tigers are 12-1 ATS at home this season compared to just 6-6 on the road. Only Kentucky, who is in line for a top-8 seed next month, was able to keep it within single digits on Auburn’s floor. This Tigers team is also still getting back to full health and isn’t yet firing on all cylinders needing to re-integrate Zep Jasper at the point.
That’s a scary proposition, even against an improving Vanderbilt team. While the Commodores have hung with some tough opponents behind the play of Scottie Pippen Jr., they just don’t match up well with the size Auburn has at every position. I suspect the Tigers are also on a bit of a revenge tour after giving up the top spot in the polls, and this stretch of weaker SEC foes gives them opportunities for blowout wins. That’s what I see here, so back the Tigers to roll.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Gonzaga/Pepperdine First Half Over 77.5 (-110): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN2
It’s generally not a great idea to bet the over in the first half of college basketball games, with late fouls usually helping so much to get games over the total. But that goes out the window in Gonzaga games as they are never close enough late to have that happen, plus the Zags often coast in the last 10 minutes or so of games. In the four conference games that have seen Gonzaga erupt offensively, the first halves averaged 97.8 points and only one had a higher-scoring second stanza.
That includes the first meeting between these teams, a game with 200 total points and 104 at the break. I’m seeing another high-scoring affair here as Pepperdine simply can’t stop anyone right now, but particularly teams with a functional offense. Their past two games have averaged 86.5 points at halftime, with the Waves allowing 48 and 60 points. Gonzaga will be able to do whatever they want and should pour it on early. With a relatively tough upcoming three games they’re likely to put it on cruise in the second half, so grab this undervalued number instead of the full game.
Degenerates
NBA Toronto Raptors/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 227.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Wolves are now the best over team in the NBA, so it would be smart to bet the over on one of the lowest totals they’ve seen in weeks, right? Well, not so fast, as this team is far different at Target Center than they are on the road. Minnesota is actually the 5th-best under bet in home games, with an average plus/minus to the total of -6.4 that’s lowest in the league. Last night’s game was a dead under until OT (they don’t call it undertime for a reason) carried it over the massive total.
While the no rest angle certainly factors in here, you also have to consider that the Raptors are likely without Fred VanVleet while the Wolves will probably be missing Anthony Edwards. Those absences will take a toll on the offense for both teams. Toronto is already 26th in pace and 25th in effective field goal rate, so combined with the tendency of Wolves home games to go under I’m seeing another here.
Tiny Nick is 596-474 ATS (+81.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
