Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Auburn @ Tennessee -2.5 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN
What’s the rule on betting Auburn? Oh yeah, if they’re at home then bet on Auburn. The Tigers go back on the road today where simply put they’ve been bad, and only 3-6 ATS. A lot of it can be explained by some boneheaded guard play from this team, and them being a turnover-prone club in general but particularly away from home. The results can’t be ignored, with Auburn’s past 6 road games being 2 losses and 4 single-digit wins, all against suspect competition.
Tennessee is not what you would consider suspect competition, especially on their home floor where they’re undefeated this season, including taking down Arizona. I don’t see the Volunteers being intimidated by the opponent or the moment here, and I like the matchup for them. While nobody can match up inside with Auburn, the athleticism Tennessee has on the perimeter can continue to force Auburn’s guards into mistakes. The home crowd will be nuts for this game as well, so I see the Vols extending Auburn’s road woes for a big win.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) New Orleans -1.5 @ Northwestern St (-110): 3:00 PM CT No TV
Despite a couple of curious losses, I’m still a believer that New Orleans is the best team in the Southland conference. Their backcourt duo of Troy Green and Derek St. Hilaire is one of the most dynamic of any small conference team, and their electric ability has the Privateers playing at the 2nd-fastest pace in the country. It’s rare to see pace like that combined with good shooting, but UNO gets to the rim so well for layups that they’re actually 30th nationally in shooting percentage.
That’s what puts Northwestern State in such trouble today, with the Demons having an atrocious 340th-rated defense. They don’t have the offensive ability to keep up either, so New Orleans should be able to pull away here. Northwestern State is also just 1-7 straight up against the top half of the conference, so with essentially just needing a win out of New Orleans, I’ll back them on the road here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Portland +10.5 @ Santa Clara (-110): 4:00 PM CT on WCC Network
I hate going against Santa Clara because this team is so talented and I had high hopes for them this season. But they like finding ways to let inferior teams hang around, and that’s bad news against a Portland team playing lights out right now. And as double-digit dogs, it feels like you’re still able to buy relatively low on the Pilots here.
Portland should be able to match Santa Clara’s style in this game, as their veteran backcourt won’t be overwhelmed by the Bronco pace. This is also the last regular season game for both teams, and Santa Clara can’t afford a slip-up if they want any chance at an at-large bid. That pressure and a hot Portland team being able to play spoiler can create a much tighter game here. But with Portland 12-3 ATS as a road dog, I’ll roll with the hot team catching plenty of points.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arizona/Colorado Over 151 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN2
I’m still stinging from losing an over bet in the first matchup between these teams, a game where the Colorado offense never got off the team bus. Today’s game should be different for a number of reasons, including Colorado being at home where they average 5 more points per game. That’s a big reason why they’re just 4-8 to the over on the road but 9-7 in Boulder. The Buffaloes would be accurately described as inconsistent, but their past 6 games have seen them average 77 PPG and they’re going to need it today.
Arizona is simply rolling right now, making a strong case for the top overall seed next month. They’ve topped 90 points in 3 of their past 4 road games, and have gone over this total in 5 of their past 6 overall after 4 straight unders. The play of Bennedict Mathurin and Kerr Kriisa explain both those stretches, and the Wildcat guard duo is absolutely on fire right now. That should fuel another offensive eruption from Arizona tonight, but since this is the second leg of their elevation road trip the defensive legs might be lacking. Colorado’s stronger home offense should take advantage and help get this game over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) South Dakota St./UMKC Over 150.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT No TV
I still believe in Kansas City overs. That’s partly because I’m stubborn, partly because their Thursday game was a bad beat on the total for lots of reason, but mostly because South Dakota State is in town.
The Jackrabbits are just a freight train offensively, and already put up 89 points on UMKC to open conference play. That offense also travels as SDSU is 6-2 over this total in Summit road games. Plus they’re coming off an insane overtime game at Oral Roberts on Thursday, and defensive effort could be lacking as a result.
I’m also confident in UMKC’s ability to put up points in this one, as their excellent shooting will be a big factor with the volume of possessions that SDSU’s style creates. Let’s not forget that this team still can’t guard without fouling either, committing the 7th-most fouls per game and facing an excellent free throw shooting team today. This game should be fast-paced with excellent shooting, and that has me believing in the over.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Boise St. @ UNLV +1.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on CBSSN
I see this line as trying to trick bettors into backing Boise State here. The Broncos should theoretically be the superior team here, but that’s ignoring the run that UNLV in on. The Rebels are playing excellent basketball, especially at home, being fueled by Bryce Hamilton going nuclear for the past month. Their only loss in the past 3 weeks was a 6-point affair in Boise that was anyone’s game with a minute left.
Boise also finds themselves in a tough spot here, traveling to a hot team after an unlikely and tough win over San Diego State this week. And despite their defensive prowess as a team, they had no answer for Hamilton in the first meeting as the Rebels guard dropped 32 points. UNLV has covered 5 of their past 6 games when catching points and 7 of the past 8 overall. This team is sneaky good, so I’m backing them again here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Chicago Bulls Over 237 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on NBCS-CHI
Both these teams came out of the All-Star break a little slow on offense given the way they entered the break. But a meeting with each other should get the ridiculous scoring binges back on track. I just don’t see the Bulls stopping Memphis here, especially with the Grizzlies needing a bounce-back after two losses that straddled the break. Chicago is another bad rebounding team that will be exploited by Memphis and their league-leading ability to grab offensive boards.
But the Bulls have shown they can score on just about anyone, they have an emerging MVP candidate in the unstoppable DeMar DeRozan, and they’ll need it to keep pace today. These teams are both top-5 in offensive rating and have been playing at faster paces as the season has gone on, so putting them on the floor together should get us another high-scoring affair. The smart money agrees as they bet up this already high total, so get on the over here.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): DeMar DeRozan Over 30.5 Points (-110)
I mean, come on, seriously now. The man cannot be stopped, scoring 31 or more points in his past 9 games and only once in that stretch shooting under 50% from the field. It also doesn’t matter if the game is high or low scoring, DeRozan is getting his. Take this prop with confidence.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee -1.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
It’s really tough not to back the best ATS team in the country. That’s the distinction this Middle Tennessee team owns at 20-5-1 ATS this season, including the 10th-best as a home favorite at 9-2. I’m being a little more cautious here though since the market seems to love Western Kentucky, driving the opening number of 3.5 down to here.
I suspect that’s a result of the Hilltoppers winning 7 straight, but a closer look at the opponents shows that it’s been a pretty soft schedule. WKU against the better C-USA teams has not been good: 0-4 against the top four teams in the standings including the first meeting with the Blue Raiders. I’ll trust Middle Tennessee again here to keep up the ATS hot streak.
NBA Washington Wizards/Cleveland Cavaliers Over 205 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
Cavaliers overs can be tricky with how good a defense they have and the slower pace they play at. But I don’t see how they miss the opportunity to exploit the Wizards here. Washington just played a double overtime game last night with 310 total points and then had to travel to Cleveland. That’s just brutal for any team, and now they have to face a Cavs squad looking to break out of a slump.
The Cavaliers have lost 3 straight, so this is a chance to take out some frustrations. A key to that losing streak is that excellent defense showing some cracks, so a Wizards team that’s starting to play better offensively has an opportunity to get theirs as well. The opening number here was 209, so with it being driven down to here I’m much more comfortable and see a potential Cavs blowout getting this over the total.
Tiny Nick is 614-494 ATS (+78.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
