Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans/Denver Nuggets Over 228 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Altitude
Count me as a disbeliever in the newfound strong defense from New Orleans, with the Pelicans allowing just 95.5 PPG since the All-Star break. But that has come against some questionable competition, and there should be regression coming for a team that’s bottom half of the NBA in defensive rating. The Pelicans have been doing their part to get into high-scoring games, averaging 122.3 points of their own, so what they need is a high-scoring opponent.
I think they’ve finally found one today in the Denver Nuggets, a team averaging 118 PPG since the break. This is an interesting matchup, as part of the success for New Orleans has been using a bigger lineup and controlling the interior. But the frontcourt for Denver can really stretch the floor while also struggling to defend just about anything. In a game that won’t be played at a particularly high pace, I see that matchup leading to easy buckets and a high-scoring game.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Samford +8.5 vs. Furman (-110): 5:30 PM CT on ESPNU
If you’ve been watching any college basketball the past week you know to take the underdog and your heart medication. Seemingly every game comes right down to the wire, and that makes this spread just too many points.
Samford is also just under the radar here, as the Bulldogs aren’t getting enough credit for how they finished the season. Their only loss in the past month was on the road to regular-season champion Chattanooga, and also took down this Furman team in that stretch. Yes, Furman is extremely talented, with one of the better offenses in the whole country. But the Paladins are heavily reliant on 3-point shooting, and while Samford’s defense is nothing special this season, they’ve been doing a much better job lately of defending the three.
And this is not the first extremely talented team that Furman coach Bob Richey has had, yet he has never advanced past this round of the SoCon tournament. It’s a tough time of year and a tough situation to be laying this many points, so I’ll take them with a Bulldogs team that should keep this tight.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Georgia St. -3 vs. Appalachian St. (-110): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN+
Okay, so I’m not necessarily taking every underdog, but this is different because I love Georgia State. Even though they gave me a bad beat yesterday by the hook, the same principles still apply to this sneaky-good team.
After yesterday’s quarterfinal win the Panthers have now racked up 8 straight victories. I talked yesterday about the COVID impact on this team, and a perfect example of their turnaround is the season series against Appalachian State. Included in those 8 wins is a 9-point victory over the Mountaineers, revenge for a 1-point home loss in January with a decimated roster. App State just doesn’t have an answer for the tough Panthers defense, or for Kane Williams who is looking like the best player in the Sun Belt.
And while the Mountaineers may have finished second in the conference, they did not close the season strong. Poor shooting, particularly from the free-throw line, continues to make things difficult on this team. I see a resurgent Georgia State squad continuing their strong play as they move on to the conference title game.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Western Illinois +6 vs Oral Roberts (-110): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN+
Yep, back to the conference tournament underdogs here. This is a tough one because Oral Roberts has all the talent they need, yet the preseason Summit favorite just hasn’t lived up to expectations. That’s particularly true down the stretch, with the Golden Eagles closing the season 5-5 straight up and 3-7 ATS. Max Abmas hasn’t been at the top of his game, and the supporting cast hasn’t been able to carry the load.
They’ve also struggled with this Western Illinois team, barely splitting the season series with a 1-point road win and 5-point home loss. The Leathernecks are a very similar team to Oral Roberts, fast-paced with a high volume of 3-point attempts. But the WIU size is what has given them an advantage over ORU this season, especially the ability of Luka Barisic to stretch the floor. If the Leathernecks can get some threes to drop tonight, they’re a live underdog against a team that is a little overvalued on name recognition.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Boston/Navy Over 126.5 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Usually, you hold your nose to take an under for a game like this, but I’m holding my nose and taking the over. Navy has been a great under bet all season, with their slow pace and tough zone defense grinding games down. And while they finished the season 8-2 to the under, the 2 overs are in their last 2 games, and I’m sensing another here.
Particularly with Boston involved, as the Terriers have been a good over bet on the year and down the stretch. Their last 10 games have gone over 8 times, all against totals considerably higher than this one. Boston also plays slow, but executes extremely well in the half-court and should find success against the Navy zone. This total is also ignoring how these teams played this season, scoring 154 and 137 points in the two meetings. This should be a tight game with fouls and free throws padding the scoring late, so with such a low total, I’ll take a shot on the over.
Tiny Nick is 629-512 ATS (+77.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
