Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers Team Total Under 99.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
I’m still not a fan of this Philadelphia team sans Joel Embiid, and it showed for most of their Game 1 loss. While they’re probably not going to shoot 17.6% from deep again, I just don’t see enough offense coming from the Sixers tonight. They’re up against the 2nd-best team in defensive rating these playoffs, with Miami showing it has no trouble shutting down the one-dimensional Philly offense. Miami has been particularly tough defensively at home, with the visiting team only clearing this number once in the postseason.
This should also be another slow-paced game, as both teams have slowed down considerably in the playoffs. Philadelphia is only averaging 91.4 possessions per game in the postseason, down quite a bit from their 99.6 season average. With the Heat only allowing 101.9 points per 100 possessions, that works out to the 76ers staying well under the century mark here tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Bam Adebayo Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)
Bam Adebayo only played twice in the regular-season series, managing 16 on this prop in one game and 31 in the other. Care to guess which of those games Joel Embiid missed? The other Sixers big men are no match for Adebayo who should feast once again in this game, especially with a lot of injury concerns across the Miami lineup possibly forcing him to do even more. Adebayo started slowly in these playoffs but has really turned it up the past few games. After 24 points and 12 boards on Monday against the feeble Philly front line, expect more of the same from Bam tonight.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Jalen Brunson Under 18.5 Points (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
The Phoenix game plan seems to be allowing Luka Doncic to go wild while shutting down his supporting cast. It’s a bold strategy, let’s see how it works out for them, but the Suns certainly have the wing defenders to make it work. Jalen Brunson struggled as a result in Game 1, cooling off after his torrid Round 1 against a Jazz team incapable of perimeter defense.
Brunson has struggled all season against that Suns defense, going 1-3 over this prop while shooting 6.3 percentage points below his season average. Phoenix also keeps him off the free-throw line, which was a big boost to his scoring against the Jazz. I’m expecting more of the same from Phoenix on defense tonight, and that should bottle up Brunson for another game.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Deandre Ayton Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
Dallas is just too small to contain Deandre Ayton, who had a monster game on Monday simply shooting over the smaller defenders. Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell have not gotten any bigger or stronger since Game 1, so I don’t see the Mavs solving their Ayton problem tonight. The Suns center also got to 33 P+R with only 8 rebounds on Monday, well below his season average and his past performances against Dallas. I’m expecting Ayton to clean the glass even more tonight as well as continue to get easy buckets inside, and that should get him over this number once again.
MLB (1 Unit) New York Yankees -1.5 @ Toronto Blue Jays (+125): 6:07 PM CT on MLB Network
Okay Yankees, I see you. An 11-game winning streak – with 9 of those by the run line – should be drawing everyone’s attention, especially with them showing more offensive pop than most teams this season. The Yankees now lead baseball in runs scored, RBI, homers, and slugging percentage, plus their pitching staff is 2nd in ERA. That’s a scary combination, and part of the reason I can’t believe there’s a plus-juice return on them to win another game by the run line.
We’ve already seen this exact matchup, as the Yankees with Nestor Cortes beat the Blue Jays and Yusei Kikuchi 4-0 almost a month ago. This is a much different and more dangerous Yankee squad since that game, but with these starting pitchers heading on opposite trajectories. Kikuchi has gotten progressively worse in his subsequent starts, and a Yankees team that has been excellent against lefty pitching should continue that slide. Conversely, Toronto struggles with left-handed pitching, giving the lefty Cortes a big advantage here. Run line covers have been tough to predict this season, but I’m pretty confident in backing baseball’s best offense with a pitching mismatch like this.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 709-575 ATS (+84.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
