Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports FL
This is the last opportunity that Sandy Alcantara has to state his case for All-Star Game starter next week, and I see him making a strong argument. The Miami righty continues to shut teams down with regularity, and the Phillies are no different.
This current Philly lineup has a cumulative .190 average and .544 OPS against Alcantara, producing four runs against him this season in 14 innings. And that was with Bryce Harper in the lineup, whose absence has really hurt this offense. Philadelphia has slid towards the bottom of the league in most batting stats against all righties the past month, and Alcantara is far from your standard righty.
So I doubt the Phillies will have much success at the plate, but we’ll need some offense from the usually punch-less Marlins for this bet. I say they get it against Kyle Gibson, who they have a cumulative .320 average and 1.013 OPS against. Gibson already lost to Alcantara once this season, and the Marlins are 3-1 to this number at home against the Phillies. With Philly also headed into the break on a skid, I like Miami’s chances to further those woes behind their ace pitcher.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves/Washington Nationals Over 9.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – the Atlanta Braves pound left-handed pitching. Giving this potent lineup another go-around against Patrick Corbin in the span of a week should result in them producing plenty of runs. Corbin owns a 10.38 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this season, with the Braves lineup batting a career .339 against him.
The Braves should do their damage at the plate, but I also expect Washington to chip in here as well. They get to see Ian Anderson for the second time in a week, who has a 5.79 ERA in two starts against them this season. Anderson is also really struggling against right-handed bats with a .314 average and .882 OPS allowed, and that happens to be the vast majority of the Nats lineup.
These teams have also gotten into some slugfests this season, going 6-4 over this total and averaging 11.2 runs per game. The meetings in DC have been more consistently high-scoring as well, so I see that continuing with two vulnerable starting pitchers tonight.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Baltimore Orioles ML @ Tampa Bay Rays (+110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Sun
I mean, why not, right? When are you going to get another chance to bet on the Baltimore Orioles of all teams to notch their 11th straight win? And no, don’t worry, this is not a bet based on karma or nostalgia, the O’s legitimately match up well in this game.
Injuries have forced Tampa into a fairly patchwork lineup lately, and they will struggle tonight against the sneaky-good Tyler Wells who Baltimore has won eight straight behind. The Oriole righty is a heavy fastball and slider pitcher, which is exactly what Tampa struggles with. It shows as their current roster has two total hits in 27 at-bats against him.
With the Rays doing a typical bullpen game it’s impossible to predict the matchup there, but this Baltimore squad is swinging hot bats with a lot of confidence. The Orioles already seem sick of being bullied by Tampa, only trailing the season series 5-4 after years of futility. I say they keep the streak rolling today and even that series behind perhaps their best pitcher.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/Colorado Rockies Over 11 (-110): 7:40 PM CT on AppleTV+
Coors Field has been doing its thing lately, with the past four home series for the Rockies averaging 11.5 runs per game. Only one of those series was against a team with a strong offense, so the conditions are definitely giving the boost that you would expect. Thin air, warm weather, and a breeze blowing out might only be the icing on the cake tonight with the starting pitchers that are going in this one.
A beer league softball team might put up runs against German Marquez in a home start, as the Rockies righty has gotten rocked for a 7.17 ERA at home. Those starts are 5-3-1 over this total with 12.1 runs on average. Against that pitching and in ideal hitting conditions, a Pirates lineup that has underrated power should do some damage tonight.
But a lot of damage should come from the Colorado bats against lefty starter Jose Quintana. The Rockies continue to have some of the best numbers in baseball against left-handed pitching, especially at home. Their righty-dominated lineup is perfect for attacking Quintana’s weakness, plus they’ll face relievers that are worn down from a lot of work the past few series. I see this game as having serious potential for a slugfest, and a fairly low total by Coors Field standards should get cleared with ease.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 804-674 ATS (+76.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
