Locks
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) UConn Team Total Over 16.5 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on FS1
UConn still has a long way to go if they’re ever to climb out of the cellar of college football. But the Huskies have lived in that cellar for so long, the disrespect creates value on them in a spot like this.
I’m anticipating marked improvement from this team right away, buoyed by transfer QB Ta’Quan Roberson from Penn State. As a highly mobile dual-threat QB, Roberson will add a dimension to the Huskies offense it hasn’t had in seemingly forever. And one of the lone bright spots from last season returns in RB Nathan Carter, who averaged 4.6 yards per carry. They’ve also retained most of their receiving corps, and coach Jim Mora built a solid offensive line via the transfer portal.
I’m also seeing a Utah State defense here that lost its top five tacklers from last season, all in the front seven including some all-conference talent. The new starters up front could struggle today with Roberson’s mobility and the 1-2 punch created with Carter in the backfield.
This also sets up as a look-ahead spot for the Aggies, which is an unquantifiable but important factor in college football. They have a trip to Alabama on deck next week, and could lose focus on UConn and/or let the Huskies do what they want late. Whether it’s garbage time points or not, I see enough production out of UConn to get them over this number.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9 (-110): 5:05 PM CT on NBCS-PHI
Add in the return of Bryce Harper to these starting pitchers having horrible numbers against the opponent, and this game should be another high-scoring affair. Harper doesn’t seem to be missing a beat, knocking in a couple of runs in his first game back last night.
That shouldn’t be tough to improve on against Pirates starter Tyler Beede, who has given up a career .353 average and 1.083 OPS to the Phillies lineup. He’s also not a true starter, meaning we’ll see plenty of the Pittsburgh bullpen that has allowed by far the most runs in baseball. I’m also not terribly surprised that Kyle Gibson has poor numbers against any given team. But to be allowing a .293 average and .843 OPS to this meek Pirates lineup is definitely concerning, and a recipe for more runs tonight.
Gibson’s past 10 starts have resulted in a 5-3-2 over mark against this total, so he’s usually a solid bet for runs. As are the Pirates lately, with a current 9-5-1 run over this number. These teams have averaged exactly 9-nine runs per game in the season series, but this pitching matchup should push that average up a little as this one gets over the number.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Detroit Tigers/Texas Rangers Over 8 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
He’s back in the majors! Dallas Keuchel pitching in the Dallas/Fort Worth area has a certain poetic ring to it, but the results are not likely to be different. Keuchel has done nothing but get crushed this season, owning a ridiculous 8.53 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. Even his more advanced stats such as expected ERA, FIP, and SIERA are outlandishly high, so he’s just a bad pitcher at this stage.
Even against Detroit, unquestionably the weakest offense in baseball, Keuchel has allowed a .293 average and .784 OPS, plus he got shelled by them two months ago. So the light-hitting Tigers should contribute plenty to this total, and give up plenty as well. This Rangers team is swinging hot bats, averaging 6.6 runs over their past eight games. Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez has a 5.30 ERA on the road this season, and faces a Texas team that’s better against lefties like him.
Both pitchers will also have to contend with the hitter-friendly Globe Life Field, which has made the Rangers the third-best over team in home games. These teams just combined for 13 runs last night with much better pitchers on the mound, so tonight should easily clear this low number.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Florida A&M @ North Carolina -42.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ACC Network
Early in the season, these buy-game numbers can get out of hand, and you should generally be cautious with them. But with this one I’m cautiously optimistic, as it’s a horrible situation for Florida A&M. The small FCS school has 27 players ruled academically ineligible for this game, decimating their offensive line in particular. But they’re playing regardless, needing to show up in order to cash a $450,000 check from UNC.
I hope they buy something nice with the money to make this beating worth it. The Rattlers rarely step up to the FBS level, and the historical results when they do aren’t pretty. Former Alabama recruit Drake Maye will start at QB for UNC, and should tear the Rattlers to shreds by feeding Josh Downs, one of the most uncoverable receivers in the country. Unless the Tar Heels take pity on their short-handed opponent, this game has 56-3 written all over it so I’m laying the big number.
Tiny Nick is 832-698 ATS (+75.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
