We got back to our winning ways last week with an assist from Patrick Mahomes, who swung tens of millions of dollars by sliding rather than strolling into the end zone. I owe you one, Pat.
If you’re new to this column, I find three underdogs (of at least three points) each week and ride them to the finish line. So far, we’re hitting at a 67% clip. Four is the magic number this week — all three of my puppies are catching four points.
Steelers +4 vs. Ravens
Let’s start with some free money. If you’re familiar with this bitter rivalry, these games virtually always land within a field goal. Doesn’t matter who the QB is, where the game is played, or who’s out injured. This matchup features a Mike Tomlin team coming off an embarrassing blowout while the Ravens crushed the Browns. That’s inflated this number a bit.
Tomlin is deadly as an underdog, deadly off a bad loss, and deadly when he’s catching points at home. Every trend points Pittsburgh’s way here. Take the points and feel good about it.
Vikings +4 vs. Chiefs
Minnesota bit me last week, even though I felt pretty good about my Panthers pick at halftime. Now they’re back home in a desperation spot, knowing that falling to 1-4 might be too big a hole to climb out of (especially with the suddenly resurgent Bears and 49ers looming).
This game has shootout written all over it. If Brian Flores chooses to blitz Mahomes all afternoon, the Chiefs can run up the score. But I think the Vikes found something in the second half last week. The running game has found its footing, and they have the weapons to keep up with KC in the passing game. I wouldn’t be shocked if Minnesota springs the upset here, but at worst, they keep it close.
Rams +4 vs. Eagles
Philly was lucky to escape at home in overtime against the Commanders last week, and I think their luck runs out on Sunday. The Rams have been one of the season’s early surprises, with Matthew Stafford looking like he’s found the Fountain of Youth (yes, he’s a bit banged up, but all reports indicate the hip injury shouldn’t limit him).
Sounds like he’ll welcome back security blanket Cooper Kupp, too, who appears to look like his old self in practice, according to teammates. The emergence of fellow WRs Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell gives Stafford a plethora of talented, reliable pass-catchers to complement a solid running attack.
Despite a 4-0 record, the Eagles still don’t look like a team clicking on all cylinders. They’ll find plenty of green in the stands at SoFi, but they’ll have their work cut out against the pesky Rams, who are 4-0 ATS so far this season.
Last Week: 2-1
Season: 8-4
