Picking up the pieces after my first losing week of the season (1-2). Things started so promising as the Texans destroyed the Jags, but my fun was short-lived as the Broncos barely failed to cover by a measly 43 points. Monday night, the Bucs never felt like the right side. Their recent dominance over the Eagles came to an abrupt end.
It’s a new week, which means we have a fresh litter of puppies to back:
Buccaneers +3½ at Saints
I’m going back to the well with Baker’s boys, despite the fact that they’re coming off a short week. Their proud defense should bounce back against a Saints offense operated by Jameis Winston. Alvin Kamara returns, but he’ll have some rust to knock off and the Bucs have contained him in the past.
Dennis Allen rarely covers as a favorite in a division game, and road divisional dogs catching over a field goal cover 69% of the time over the last two seasons. It’s probably a field goal game, so I’ll take the hook and feel good about it.
Raiders +5½ at Chargers
I rarely trust Brandon Staley as a favorite, and I definitely would not lay this many points in a divisional matchup. Yes, the Raiders were terrible last week, but stars Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby have been very outspoken this week, and I think they’ll get their teammates’ attention.
The Chargers’ high-flying offense lost receiver Mike Williams and may not have Austin Ekeler for another week. We know their defense is horrendous, so as long as Jimmy Garoppolo emerges from concussion protocol, and he has returned to practice, I think Vegas keeps it close (Caveat: if Jimmy G doesn’t play, I’ll replace them with the Panthers. Minnesota shouldn’t be favored by four over anyone — especially in an Adam Thielen revenge game.)
Jets +9 vs. Chiefs
I see you. You’re shaking your head. You’re laughing at me. You’re calling me names. That’s okay, I can take it. Who in their right mind would put their hard-earned money on Zach Wilson against Patrick Mahomes?
This guy would. Sure, this game looks nothing like the blockbuster it appeared to be when the schedule came out. And on paper it looks like a massive mismatch. Heck, the Chiefs defense is starting to look like what we thought the Jets defense would look like.
But this feels to me like a game where New York’s proud defense rises up. And Wilson actually started to look competent in the second half last week. Sure, it’s in primetime, but the Chiefs may sleepwalk a little — their second straight game where they’re facing an overmatched foe on paper. The whole world is taking the Chiefs here. Somehow, someway, the Jets show some pride and keep it under double digits.
Last Week: 1-2
Season: 6-3
