If not for some strange officiating at the end of last week’s Vikings-Chiefs game, we’d likely be celebrating another winning week. Instead, we’ll look to get back to our winning ways on a week where there are several double-digit favorites and some very close lines.
My top pick was going to be the Browns, fresh off a bye and armed with a stingy defense that was set to host the 49ers, who are primed for a letdown following last week’s prime-time demolition of the Cowboys. But even though the line has soared to ten points, I just can’t put my money behind QB P.J. Walker against that defense.
Fear not, I’ve found three other dogs that I’m more than happy to back this week.
Colts +4 at Jaguars
This is my favorite game of the week. The Colts catch the Jags at the perfect time, finally back home after two weeks and two wins in London. They’re feeling good about themselves after knocking off the Bills. But they chose not to take their bye this week, and I think they’ll pay for it.
Teams often struggle in their first game back from Europe, and the Jaguars always struggle as favorites, especially within the division. The Colts are getting healthier, with the likely return of left tackle Bernhard Raimann and pass rusher Kwity Paye from concussions. Plus, stud linebacker Shaq Leonard is back after missing the last two games. Meanwhile, the Jags are dealing with injuries to both of their tackles.
Indy is 3-0 in games where Gardner Minshew takes the majority of snaps, and this is his revenge game, meeting his former team. Throw in a suddenly potent RB duo in Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor, and the Colts have a chance for their first win on the Florida Panhandle since 2014. At the very least, they’ll keep it close.
Bears +3 vs. Vikings
I’ve been wrong on the Purple the last two weeks, picking against them in Carolina and backing them last week. And a part of me wants to put myself in a timeout for believing that a team that went virtually a calendar year without a win could potentially win two straight games.
Chicago is coming off one of the season’s most unlikeliest wins, and they did it in dominating fashion. They’ve enjoyed extra rest and come into this matchup pretty healthy. The defense dialed up the pressure against Sam Howell and sacked him five times. That will be the plan against Kirk Cousins and an offense adjusting to Justin Jefferson’s absence for the first time.
Meanwhile, the Vikes’ defense will have to deal with the Justin Fields–D.J. Moore connection while not allowing Fields to kill them with his feet. Minnesota will feel the pressure to win this one, knowing that a loss could have them looking at a 1-6 record after the 49ers leave town next weekend. Look for the Bears to make it two in a row.
Patriots +3 at Raiders
Oh, you hate this pick; I know you do. New England’s opponents have scored 69 straight points against them, and everyone is wondering if this is it for Bill Belichick. Now they must travel across the country to play a Las Vegas team fresh off a primetime win, and they’re only catching three? What gives?
For starters, the Raiders don’t handle success well, rarely stacking wins together. They’re also 0-3 on short rest under Josh McDaniels. Speaking of whom, Belichick would like nothing more than to beat his longtime assistant. His defense is missing two of its best players, Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez, but now they’ve had a little time to figure out how to scheme a game plan without them. And teams tend to play very well after being shut out (last week notwithstanding).
This has all the makings of a low-scoring, grind-it-out game, with both teams doing most of their damage on the ground. Feels like a 17-16 kind of game.
Last Week: 1-2
Season: 9-6
