Locks
NFL (0.25 Unit) Justin Jefferson Alt Over 193.5 Receiving Yards (+440; Odds via FanDuel): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
The big payout here is worth a shot in a situation that actually sets up pretty well for Jefferson. With 194 receiving yards, the Viking star will break Calvin Johnson’s single-season yardage record. It’s a lofty goal to be sure, but I’m willing to bet Minnesota tries to get him there in a game where they need to build some momentum.
The Bears are the perfect team to go for it against, as Chicago is 31st in pass defense by DVOA, and dead last against their opponent’s top wide receiver. That’s definitely why Jefferson torched them for 154 yards earlier this season, plus he also has games of 193 and 223 yards on the year. So if Minnesota force-feeds him today then history is within reach, and the juicy return on this alt over makes it even better.
NFL (0.75 Unit) New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills -4.5 First Half (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Prayers up for Damar Hamlin. One of the scariest scenes in sports history is probably going to matter for this game. While it’s impossible to truly grasp how Buffalo is going to respond in their first action since Monday, this is a team that has performed well when emotion was a key element to the handicap.
Games against the Rams, Titans, Steelers, and Chiefs this season all came in spots where the Bills were either out to prove a point or exact revenge. They won all four games, went 4-0 ATS, and won by 23.5 points on average. I’m focusing on the first half here for several reasons though.
First is because I’m just not in the habit of laying more than a touchdown in a division game. But focusing on the first half here gets me a Bills team that scores the most points in first halves at home, against a Patriots team that is 26th in first-half scoring on the road. Buffalo also led New England by 10 on the road this season, so they know how to get this done in general. Early on is when the Bills should be at their emotional and motivational peak as well, so look for them to get rolling before halftime.
NFL (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Browns/Pittsburgh Steelers Under 40.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
I just don’t see where the points are going to come from in this one. Neither offense has shown anything to get excited about for most of the season, particularly down the stretch. In the past 5 games each for these teams, they are a combined 9-1 under this total with those games averaging 30.8 points. In a spot where the Steelers have a shot at a playoff berth, I expect their defense to carry them once again. These are two very run-heavy offenses that play at slow paces, and outdoors in January seems like the perfect situation for another AFC North slugfest.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Arizona Cardinals 1st Half Team Total Under 6.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 3:25 PM CT on FOX
It’s the second week in a row of me trusting the 49ers, still the owners of the NFL’s top-rated defense, to hold down a backup quarterback for a team playing out the string. Once again, I’m looking to isolate the first half here, as that’s when San Francisco will be at its most motivated. Until it becomes apparent that Philadelphia will secure the top NFC seed, the Niners will have something to play for, and I expect them to play extremely hard.
Especially in a bounce-back spot off allowing the Raiders to carve them up last week, and wanting to roll into the postseason with something positive for the defense that will likely be asked to carry them. The Cardinals are down to David Blough as their starting quarterback for this one, and it’s not likely to be pretty on the road in a hostile environment. Arizona has been one of the lowest-scoring first half teams all season, and with so much on the line for the 49ers, expect those woes to continue here at least early on.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1009-865 ATS (+83.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
