Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Lakers/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 232.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
These teams definitely have what it takes to get over this number, as they both shoot the ball very well and play at a fast tempo. But neither meeting has gotten anywhere close, with them combining for 213 and 212 points earlier this season. There have been roster overhauls for both squads, plus LeBron James and Anthony Davis each missed one meeting, but that still doesn’t explain those results compared to this high of a total.
I also think we’re starting to see some playoff-style basketball around the league, especially in the Western Conference where any game can drastically change your seeding. That means more defensive effort, and both the Lakers and Wolves are sneakily in the top-10 for defensive rating this season. The Lakers have been leaning a lot more on defense lately as well, and the result is 12 of their past 15 games going under this total. With these teams jockeying for playoff position, I think we see a slower game with better defense that results in an under.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Brooklyn Nets Over 240.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on YES
Ignore my theory of improved defensive effort for teams in the thick of the playoff chase when one of those teams is the Atlanta Hawks. While both they and the Brooklyn Nets are fighting for playoff position, you can’t ignore how the Hawks are playing right now. They’ve been in basically the same playoff seeding situation for weeks, but that hasn’t caused them to rethink their style of full-go offense and lack of defense.
I don’t think the Nets will mind that style at all, as they look to keep climbing out of an offensive rut they were in for over a week. Playing a Hawks team that has allowed 121.7 PPG since the All-Star break can fix your offensive problems in a hurry. While Brooklyn doesn’t love to run quite like Atlanta does, this should be a high-efficiency game between two good shooting teams. But in general there’s only one play to make with Hawks games, and I’m making it here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors -16.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-BA
Oh look, a highly public team against an opponent in full tank mode, quite the square special. The price to back the Warriors here is pretty inflated since you have to pay a premium for the brand name and San Antonio’s desire for Victor Wembanyama. But I’m walking right into it nonetheless because of how truly awful the Spurs have been lately, and against the Warriors this season.
The Spurs appear to have completely shut it down for the season, losing 5 straight by 27.6 points on average. They’ve also failed to cover each time, missing the number by an average 15.7 point margin, so it’s a blowout of both them and the spread. The Warriors have shown them no mercy this season, winning by 37 and 31 in the previous meetings. With so many injuries for the Spurs and the Warriors starting to roll, expect another blowout here.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Spurs Team Total Under 112.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
I think this is a better bet, and somewhat hedges against laying it with the Warriors in case this turns into a lower-scoring game. Early in the season with a fully healthy roster, the Spurs only managed 95 points in the meeting at Golden State. Their current 5-game blowout streak has seen the Spurs average only 102.4 PPG, and they’re the league’s worst team for offensive efficiency on the road. That has resulted in them going under this total in 12 of their past 15 road games.
Much has been made of Golden State’s road defensive issues, but at home they’re somehow elite defensively. The Warriors are 3rd in home defensive efficiency, allowing just 111.3 PPG. And their past 10 home games have seen the opponent go 9-1 under this team total. I don’t think a shorthanded and unmotivated Spurs team gets there tonight.
NBA (1 Unit) Sacramento Kings -15 @ Portland Trail Blazers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW
The Kings were laying 14 points on Wednesday, won by 40, and this line adjusted by a single point. The injury list for the Trail Blazers that was so key to the handicap has only gotten worse, whereas Sacramento is fully healthy. Again, this line was adjusted by only a single point.
The Blazers had a 7-man rotation in that Wednesday game where they played slow and accepted their inevitable beating. Another one is inevitable tonight, so I’m laying the heavy lumber in a game where injuries and tanking aren’t being fully accounted for, it’s just that simple.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1184-1021 ATS (+77.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
