Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers -8 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-PHI
I finally got a live view of how good the Sixers can be against quality teams as they pulled away from the Timberwolves on Wednesday night. Joel Embiid is on another level right now, carrying this team to massive blowouts, and another comfortable win should be coming here. We’ve already seen these teams meet twice as well, with Philly winning and covering both matchups.
You can’t ignore Philadelphia’s second-best ATS record at 19-8, including the league’s best margin of victory and average ATS margin. Toronto has not been able to keep up with powerful offensive teams which is what the 76ers are, so look for Philly to roll into their Christmas break with an easy win.
NBA (1 Unit) Atlanta Hawks Team Total Over 118.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports FL
I’ve been really impressed with Atlanta’s ability lately to exert their style of play on every opponent, especially on Wednesday when they did it on the road against a great defensive team. That’s sent the Hawks over this team total in 8 of their past 10 games, including 6 straight, and another should be coming here.
This is not the Miami team we’re used to, as the defense is not playing to the level you would expect. The Heat are just 17th in defensive efficiency on the season, and that drops to 25th for home games. It’s why they have a positive record to the over at home, including the league’s second-highest plus/minus to the total for home games. But with Jimmy Butler out tonight I don’t want to count on points from Miami, so I’ll isolate the Hawks to continue their offensive surge against a subpar defense.
Bonus Bets (0.5 Unit Each) Trae Young Over 3.5 Made Three’s & Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 2.5 Made Three’s (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Both of these excellent shooters have been red hot lately to fuel Atlanta’s run of high-scoring games. They’ll have another great chance to light it up from deep tonight against a Miami team that struggles with perimeter defense. The Heat are just 22nd in opponent 3-point percentage overall and 26th at home. The Hawks will have no fear of firing away all game, so I like their two best 3-point shooters to splash plenty of them tonight.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Mississippi Valley St @ Baylor -40.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m not usually in the habit of laying 40 points in college hoops, but this game has the potential for Baylor to go completely nuclear. After consecutive losses to top programs in the past week halted their momentum, the Bears have the perfect victim in front of them to take out some frustrations.
MVSU and their 355th-rated defense will politely decline to guard all game long, so Baylor should get whatever they want from everywhere on the floor. The Delta Devils have faced five power conference opponents this season, losing by 46, 39, 34, 34, and 38 point margins. Baylor’s anger should be enough to propel them over the 40-point threshold in this rout.
Tiny Nick is 1841-1647 ATS (+84.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
