Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Washington Nationals Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:45 PM CT on MLB.TV
Both of these teams have a lot of potential on offense, and those offenses are heading into a potentially very favorable situation tonight. The Diamondbacks have been red hot at the plate, averaging 7.1 runs per game since the All-Star break, and 7.3 going back to their past 10 games overall. So putting them up against Nationals pitching should result in a lot of runs, especially if they get to see Carson Palmquist for an extended outing before Zach Littell comes in, as they’re the best hitting team in the league against lefties like Palmquist.
Arizona isn’t blowing anyone away with their pitching though, and even with their best starter in lefty Eduardo Rodriguez going tonight, there’s danger lurking. The D’backs might be the best against lefties, but just behind them is Washington, and the Nationals actually lead the league in OPS and weighted runs created. They’ve also already given Rodriguez his second-worst start of the season, with his worst coming last time out. The Nats are simply an elite offense, which they have to be to compensate for their pitching, so there are a lot of paths to a high-scoring game here and that’s exactly what I expect.
MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+210; Odds via Fanduel)
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox (-126): 6:15 PM CT on MLB.TV
Time to start a new streak. Boston finally lost on Wednesday, but that loss and a day off before this game is probably a good thing for anyone who wants to keep backing the Red Sox going forward. This is a high motivation spot for them since things were at their ugliest after a 3-game sweep at the hands of this Toronto team. But 23 wins in 26 games later, and this is a completely different Boston squad, which I think is out for revenge.
This is a great spot for Boston to continue flexing their pitching strength that has fueled their run, as lefty Patrick Sandoval should be in a bounce back spot. Toronto is disappointing in a lot of different ways, but particularly against lefthanded pitching as they’re either worst or second-worst in every key metric. I think all it takes for Boston here is a little more of that offensive resurgence and clutch hitting, and they’ll get past a struggling Jays team.
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox (-134): 6:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
I think this might be a significantly mispriced number for a White Sox team in a great spot. The Southsiders are just too good at home, with the second-best home record and leading the league in run line plus/minus for home games. A big reason why has been staff ace Davis Martin’s home dominance, allowing either one or zero runs in 7 of his 8 home starts as only red-hot Boston gave him a poor outing two weeks ago.
If Martin can pitch around Yordan Alvarez, then he can hold down this Astros team that I think is overvalued right now. They just pulled off a sweep at home of the flailing Marlins, but reality is about to set in here. Spencer Arrighetti has also been getting a big dose of reality after an unsustainable start to the season, posting a 7.88 ERA since the beginning of June. He’s been rough away from home all year with a 5.52 road ERA, so Houston finds itself at a big pitching disadvantage here and I think it gives Chicago another home win.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-11 (+2.88 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
