Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Taj Bradley Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 12:10 PM CT on MLB.TV
I think Taj Bradley is having a better season than he’s getting credit for. There have been ups and downs, just like most pitchers, but his core numbers are stronger than the perception of him overall. One key stat that fits this is strikeouts, especially lately as those have really taken off. This prop total is literally right on his per-game average of 6.5 strikeouts, but there are factors suggesting he’ll be above average today.
The most obvious is that he just struck out 10 Guardians on July 7th, which was at Target Field, but there’s no discernable difference in his home/road strikeout splits. While Cleveland is about average in the league for K-rate against righties like Bradley, this offense is mostly smoke and mirrors so an experienced pitcher like him knows how to hold them down. What he needs is just a lengthier start since his 10.4 K’s-per-nine innings is fairly impressive, and getting to 7 at a juicy return is very possible with enough work.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Brandon Pfaadt Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 4:15 PM CT on MLB.TV
Pfaadt began the season in the starting rotation, but quickly lost that role with a series of bad outings. So the Diamondbacks banished him to the bullpen, and then he went on the injured list for a few weeks, but has been back in the rotation since late June due to a lack of options in Arizona.
So it’s safe to say that he’s on a short leash, which has borne out in his 4 starts since getting back into the rotation. Those 4 starts have seen him record 16, 15, 16, and 16 outs, and his last start was against the Cardinals who he’ll see again today. Rematches like this typically go in favor of the offense, so St Louis will be at an advantage, and his short leash should come into play for another abbreviated start.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Troy Melton Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on MLB Network
The Tigers are surging, and pitchers like Melton are the biggest reason why. Since June started, Detroit is leading baseball in team ERA, which is made even more impressive by the fact that the Red Sox are absolutely on fire as well. Melton joined the big league rotation in late May so he’s been a big part of this return to relevance for the Tigers, contributing a 1.80 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.
He’s only allowed multiple runs in 2 of his 9 starts, holding down several very impressive offenses in the process. Kansas City can hit against righties like Helton in spurts, but they should not be trusted to score as they’re bottom-third in the league for both raw and weighted scoring metrics. There are also only 3 Royals hitters who have ever faced Melton, and that inexperience will be costly against a hot starter, so I think he keeps the damage to a minimum and pays off this plus-juice return.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 18-11 (+4.01 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
