Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
I’m fading Noah Syndergaard on the road here, as Thor has been disappointing overall and atrocious away from home. He has a 10.29 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and .432 weighted on-base average allowed on the road this season. Except for an injury-shortened one inning appearance in Milwaukee, all of Syndergaard’s road starts this season have seen the opponent score at least 6 runs. That should spell trouble against a Rays offense that’s still the best in the league against right-handed pitching. Tampa is also the second highest-scoring team at home, so this confluence of factors has me seeing plenty of runs for them tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Detroit Tigers Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Apple TV+
I don’t think the Tigers are as dysfunctional offensively as they look, and they certainly proved that to some extent last night. In plating 7 runs against Lucas Giolito, they showed that they can put up plenty of offense against perhaps the best pitching Chicago can offer. The White Sox will not be rolling out their best today with Lance Lynn taking the mound, whose 6.28 ERA is fairly justified by his deeper metrics.
But Detroit will need to score like they did yesterday to support their own gas can starter Joey Wentz. The lefty has either blown up personally and/or seen the game turn into a slugfest in almost all of his starts this year. The White Sox can stack plenty of right-handed bats against Wentz, who is allowing a .323 average and .941 OPS to that side of the plate. There’s enough bad pitching and good offense in this one where a total like this is very gettable.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Miami Marlins/LA Angels Over 8 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 8:38 PM CT on Bally Sports West
Two left-handed starters take the mound in this game, and it should make for plenty of scoring opportunity. Both the Marlins and Angels are top-5 in the league for batting average against lefties, as well as top-10 in weighted on-base average and weighted runs-created-plus. Miami starter Jesus Luzardo has also really struggled on the road this season, and should have trouble with all the right-handed bats LA can stack up.
With Reid Detmers going for the Angels it can be tough to know what you’re going to get, but he’s been much worse in home games this year with a 5.31 ERA. And both pitchers keep getting into high-scoring games, with the past 4 games each for Luzardo and Detmers going 7-0-1 over this total. There’s also a big wind blowing out to center for this game, and with so many potential baserunners and hits, these teams should find a way to get enough of them home to cash the over.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1303-1146 ATS (+71.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
