The draft is an exciting time of year because every team gets better, adding players they hope will develop into meaningful contributors and even future stars. Teams have to be smart about how they navigate the draft, and the best ones get the most value out of the resources that they have. The Minnesota Vikings enter the draft with limited resources, owning only five picks throughout the course of the draft. They sent picks away in the T.J. Hockenson trade, the move up for Akayleb Evans in the 2022 draft, the Jalen Reagor and Ross Blacklock trades, and a trade that sent Stephen Weatherly to the Denver Broncos.
Given these limited resources, it’s hard to see the Vikings standing and making their first-round pick at No. 23 overall. GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s first draft also gave us a look into how he views picks. The former Wall Street trader sees them as commodities and used them to go up and down the board when he saw value spots in 2022. He entered the 2022 draft pick pick Nos. 12, 46, 77, 156, 184, 191, 192, and 250. They ended up making picks at Nos. 32, 42, 59, 66, 118, 165, 169, 184, 191, and 227. Those changes were the result of six different trades that Adofo-Mensah made during the draft.
As a result, it’s difficult to believe the Vikings will end up actually using all or even more than a couple of the picks they go into the 2023 draft with at Nos. 23, 87, 119, 158, and 211. With a trade being likely, let’s explore the case for the team moving up or down.
Trading up to Alter the Course of the franchise
With their limited number of picks, there is really only one justification for the Vikings to move up in the draft. It’s the same reason that has led a number of media members to mock Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker to the Vikings at No. 23: Kirk Cousins‘ contract expires at the end of the 2023 season. If the Vikings want to try to grab their QB of the future in this draft, it would make sense to move up. Why stay in your spot and end up with a player who is clearly viewed as lesser when you can pile together resources and go up to get a guy you believe can become a franchise QB?
If the Vikings have a player that they want to target at the QB position, they should move up to get him. Moving up to pick No. 3 should be possible, but it is likely cost prohibitive. Instead, the team would probably hope for the player they like, whether it’s C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, or Will Levis, to drop to the No. 8-11 range, and then package a couple of first-round picks to move up to get their guy. It’s similar to how the Kansas City Chiefs approached getting Patrick Mahomes or the Chicago Bears went after Justin Fields.
Drafting a QB early is the best way to get surplus value out of that selection. Per PFF’s research, drafting a QB is the only position that yields significant surplus value early in the draft. That’s because of the contracts top-10 players receive, and how much more valuable QB is than any other position. QBs on their rookie deal will give their team $15 million in surplus value on average. Obviously, that’s driven by the QBs that are successful. However, the amount of value you gain when that player hits makes it worth the risk. If the Vikings have a player they are enamored with at the position in this draft, they should jump at the opportunity to move up and get him.
Trading Down to Add Value
Adofo-Mensah moved up multiple times to get players in 2022 (notably, for Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans), but he started out by trading down twice. There are multiple ways to evaluate draft trades, but the best way to figure out whether or not a team got market value for their picks is by using the trade chart Rich Hill developed that uses historical trade information. A key finding when looking at Adofo-Mensah’s trades is that he was not shy about taking less than market value when trading back.
Adofo-Mensah started off his tenure by making a trade that fell short on value based on the Rich Hill chart. The Vikings traded pick Nos. 12 and 46 for pick Nos. 32, 34, and 66. That represented a loss of -38.78 points of value on the chart, or an 8.2% loss. However, not getting market value for those picks does not necessarily mean the Vikings lost the trade. There are a number of analytics-based draft value charts that calculate the value of each pick by looking at historical results from that spot. One of those is the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart. On that chart, the Vikings won the trade by 533 points, or a 19% increase in value. That surplus is equal to roughly a fifth-round pick.
From that move, it’s clear that Adofo-Mensah has developed his own trade chart, and that it does not value high picks as much as teams traditionally have. There is significant historical data to justify that decision. This is highly relevant to this year’s draft, as the general consensus is there is not as much blue-chip talent at the top compared to a normal draft. Buffalo Bills GM Brandon Beane went on record when talking about the talent in this draft:
Typically, teams will have 20 or so first-round grades on players. If this year is worse than normal, that number may be in the teens. At No. 23, the Vikings will probably end up missing out on blue-chip talent if they stay in their spot. Without a player they covet highly over the other options, it would make sense for them to try to move down. Most evaluators seem to think that while the talent at the top is relatively weak, there is good depth deep into Day 2.
Depth in the draft reinforces the desire to move back. However, other teams around your spot are also likely to want to move back if they view the talent in a similar light. That’s where Adofo-Mensah‘s trade chart mentioned above works in Minnesota’s favor. With limited options of teams that are looking to trade up, the Vikings are likely to offer a better deal than most others. As we established above, even if they move back for less value than they would traditionally get, the team will still end up getting surplus value on the trade from an analytical perspective, so it will be a net positive.
For most GMs, it’s difficult to say that they will be willing to trade back because the right opportunity has to be there at the right cost. For Adofo-Mensah, it’s easier to be confident he will trade back because of the value he’s shown he’s willing to take.
conclusion
For the Vikings, staying and picking at No. 23 overall seems to be the least likely outcome on night one of the NFL draft. They have been heavily sniffing around the QB market, and may make a big splash by trading up for their guy. If they do not make that move, the team will likely look to add value by moving down in the draft. That move down can be difficult to project for most teams, but Adofo-Mensah has shown willingness to move down for a little less value than what teams would typically get. Armed with that information, I feel confident that Minnesota’s first selection in the 2023 NFL draft will not be made with the No. 23 pick.
