The clock ran out on a brutal day for the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. There’s no shame in losing to the Kansas City Chiefs, but their accumulation of errors added insult to a potentially major injury. The Vikings couldn’t stop fumbling the ball. A one-legged Travis Kelce gutted through the second half, but Justin Jefferson‘s hamstring kept him sidelined. Kirko Chainz remained mothballed on the final drive, and the Vikings fell to 1-4.
The optimist can cut through the carnage and still see a path to contention. But the realist sees a team that can’t overcome its own mistakes and a quarterback draft class that could lead to a brighter future.
Therefore, it’s natural to argue that the Vikings should tank. However, fans and the organization had expectations for this team. But expectations are fluid, and it’s time to realize the current regime isn’t reaching the bar they set at the beginning of the season. Minnesota would be wise to shift their focus to finding a quarterback of the future.
A few months before the Vikings reported for training camp, they wrapped up a 13-win season that led to a NFC North championship but a loss in the Wild Card round. Fans expected this team to build off that success, even after they cut Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, and Dalvin Cook and give themselves another chance to compete in a winnable division.
But things have changed over the past five weeks. The Detroit Lions have outperformed the expectations of even the most loyal optimist with a 4-1 start, while Jordan Love hasn’t been the drop-off many thought he could be in his quest to replace Aaron Rodgers. Although the Chicago Bears have somehow gotten a bit worse than they were one year ago, the Vikings are the only team that has suffered true regression.
The Vikings created an expectation that they were “situational masters” under Kevin O’Connell, but even he has failed to live up to that billing this season. A late-game headset malfunction caused chaos that cost them a game against the Los Angeles Chargers. And his challenge on Kelce’s catch on a fourth down in the third quarter burned a timeout that could have come in handy on the final drive of the day.
Like many teams, the Vikings had the expectation of protecting the football. However they are tied for last in the league with a minus-nine turnover differential. Josh Oliver was the latest Viking to put the ball on the turf during the first play from scrimmage Sunday afternoon. Later, he recited something his head coach probably wrote on a whiteboard at some point over the first five weeks.
“Anytime you have the ball in your hands, you have the whole organization in your hands,” Oliver said via The Athletic’s Jon Krawczynski. “I let the Vikings down today.”
The Vikings also expected that T.J. Hockenson would ascend to become one of the best tight ends in the league. A hot finish to last season earned Hockenson a lucrative contract extension. However, the hold-in (or injuries, if you prefer) that preceded it may have caused some issues, including a dropped pass that led to a game-sealing interception against the Chargers and another crucial drop in the second half against the Chiefs.
Even if the Vikings solved all of these problems, it’s unlikely they’ll go 12-0 and get to the level they were at one year ago. Yet a deeper look at this team provides some optimism that they can get back in the hunt in the not-so-distant future.
Minnesota’s defense has been the one group that has exceeded expectations in their first year under Brian Flores. Even with Marcus Davenport‘s absence for the first three games, the Vikings rank 12th with 5.1 yards allowed per play and are tied for 16th with 13 sacks on the season.
On Sunday afternoon, Minnesota’s defense was a silver lining. They held the Chiefs to 3.2 yards per carry on the ground and kept Patrick Mahomes under 300 yards passing. They even held Kelce to 67 yards receiving. But it just wasn’t good enough to come away with the win.
The Vikings also have the schedule on their side; they have yet to play a game with an NFC North opponent. A win over the 1-4 Chicago Bears next week could provide momentum even if the San Francisco 49ers blow them out the following week. But with all four games remaining against the Lions and the Packers, there’s a path for them to fight their way back into contention.
And if recent history has taught us anything, the Vikings will be in the game no matter who their opponent is. In the 23 games (including playoffs) since O’Connell took over as head coach, the Vikings have played 17 one-score games – a 73% clip. If we go back to the start of the 2020 season, they’ve played in 41 one-score games – a whopping 89% rate over their past 46 games.
But therein the problem. Minnesota has always been good enough to compete, but they’ve never been good enough to win the Super Bowl. That hasn’t stopped Vikings fans from dreaming of a day when Jefferson and O’Connell hoist the Lombardi Trophy, but it seems to be lost on a team that talks about competitive rebuilds and being “super competitive” every year.
So how do the Vikings break the cycle? Tanking is certainly an option, but it’s unlikely. The players in the locker room have pride, O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah have four-year contracts, and Flores refused to take part in a tanking scheme a few years ago.
Even if they throw games, it’s unlikely they would wind up with the No. 1-overall pick. Carolina looks destined to give the No. 1-overall selection to the Bears. Other teams such as the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are currently in more dire situations than Minnesota.
The Vikings could also trade up to acquire their next quarterback, but that comes with added risk – especially for a team that has holes on both sides of the ball. Minnesota’s salary cap situation could negate that risk, but they’ve been burned by that approach before and could need those assets to fill out the roster.
Ultimately, the Vikings could be relying on a quarterback in the back half of the first round or the early second. That’s where the Baltimore Ravens got Lamar Jackson and the Philadelphia Eagles landed Jalen Hurts. But it also could backfire. That’s also where Jimmy Clausen and Will Levis got picked.
Whatever the Vikings decide to do, it has to be with the future in mind. The expectations for this year have already changed. If they wish to be a trademark franchise moving forward, they must begin their thought process for acquiring their next quarterback.
