On the surface, trading Kirk Cousins doesn’t seem complicated. His contract expires in the offseason, the Minnesota Vikings are 1-4, and plenty of teams need a quarterback. The New York Jets went into the year believing Aaron Rodgers was their missing piece. Four plays later, he’s injured, and Zach Wilson needs to step in. The Atlanta Falcons are off to a 3-2 start and have an easy schedule. Maybe they want to upgrade from Desmond Ridder.
Cousins is expensive for the Vikings. They owe him a $10 million base salary this season, plus a $6.25 million signing bonus and $48.75 million in dead cap. Cousins carries a $20.25 million cap hit this season, $28.5 million next year, $10.25 million in 2025, and $4 million the two seasons after that. But the Jets or Falcons wouldn’t have to worry about that.
“His base salary is $10 million,” The Ringer’s Benjamin Solak explained on Bill Simmons’ podcast. “Base salary gets paid out as the game checks (get paid out), ‘Oh, you get 1/18th of it 18 times a season,’ right? That money, however many weeks will be left, nine, 10 weeks are responsible for the acquiring team.
[Say] the Jets trade for Kirk Cousins. They have to pay whatever fraction of that $10 million is left. Which really is not a lot of money, right? You’re gonna be paying, what is it, seven figures, right? Single-digit millions, for Kirk Cousins, [who] is a functional starting NFL starting quarterback.The rest of the money that is on Cousins’ contract is all bonus money. It was either part of his signing bonus when he first signed the deal or money that got restructured when the Vikings changed the deal to create cap space. All that bonus money has already been paid to the player, so the Vikings already gave it to Kirk. It’s just on their salary cap for this year or for next year.
The cap implications don’t matter if Cousins doesn’t want to leave Minnesota. Cousins has a full no-trade clause in his contract, so he has to approve any move the Vikings make. He’s 35 years old and has a wife and two kids. Perhaps he doesn’t want to move them out of school. Maybe Cousins is happy with his teammates, Minnesota’s coaches, and the facility. That’s his prerogative. As a veteran with the leverage to negotiate a $35 million contract with a no-move clause, he earned that autonomy.
On Wednesday, a reporter asked Cousins about the Vikings potentially trading him. “You know, I am just very focused on the Bears and going 1-0 this week,” he responded. “And anything else is not worth my time or energy or attention.” A reporter followed up and asked if there was any scenario where he’d consider waiving his no-trade clause, and Cousins declined to address the premise. Cousins’ contract will void in March, following the franchise tag deadline. Therefore, he can become a free agent.
According to ESPN, the Vikings have a 41.5% chance of getting a top-10 pick and a 20.3% chance of making the playoffs. They have a pathway to secure Caleb Williams, even if they don’t finish dead last, assuming he wants to play in Minnesota. But they could also try to win with Justin Jefferson on the injured list, and they may end up around .500. Establishing a winning culture is important. But Cousins could walk at season’s end, and they may be searching for a new quarterback anyway.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has called tanking “unconscionable,” but there’s a difference between going into a season intending the tank and adjusting to circumstances. Players put their health and career on the line in every game, so it’s hard to go into a season expecting to lose. Still, the Vikings could have a five- or six-win season, even if they’re all in. And how rewarding is a .500 record anyway? That’s something they have to ponder as the trade deadline nears.
The Vikings can’t do a complete teardown without trading Cousins. They could move Danielle Hunter, who’s on a one-year deal, or veteran Jordan Hicks. But Minnesota cut most of their impactful veterans last year and would want to retain their young core. There are young players on this team who would benefit from more playing time, and experts feel 2024 is a strong quarterback class. Still, they may not be able to move Cousins and could opt to try and keep the team competitive. It depends on many factors, including Cousins’ desire for a trade and how they feel about the team after playing the Chicago Bears on Sunday.
