It’s hard to miss Luis Arraez these days. Or, maybe I should say that it’s hard not to miss Arraez. He owns ESPN’s baseball corner, small as it is. MLB may be becoming a more regional sport; there are 162 games. It’s not like football, where you can watch your favorite team play at noon, then catch the 3:25 pm, Sunday night, and Monday night games. (But for the love of everything holy, don’t watch the Thursday games.)
Still, in between debates over whether you’d rather have Dak Prescott or Kirk Cousins and Summer League highlights, you’ll see Arreaz’s cherubic visage as he slaps another single. In the corner of the screen, you’ll see his batting average fluctuate: .398, .401, .400. The Minnesota Twins sent a beloved, old-school player to South Florida, and now he’s chasing Ted Williams’ vaunted batting average. Meanwhile, the Twins could use a contact hitter to table-set for their high-strikeout, high-powered lineup. What in the name of J.J. Hardy and LaMonte Wade Jr. is going on here?
The Twins have made poorly conceived trades, and some deals became lopsided over time. There are even some that look terrible and get better over time. Trading Hardy to make room for Tsuyoshi Nishioka? Not great. Moving Wade to clear the way for Jake Cave? Uff da. But ESPN gave the Twins an A- for the Arraez trade. They felt it was a fair deal, even if Pablo López didn’t become Minnesota’s bona fide ace.
Conversely, they gave the Miami Marlins a B-. The writer, Bradford Doolittle, is an Arraez fan. But he said he’d have to hit .300 to have any value, and he openly speculated if the Marlins should have gotten more.
Process matters. But sports are a results-oriented business. Nobody is thrilled with the Tyler Mahle trade, even though ESPN liked it at the time, too. It’s tough to watch the Cincinnati Reds become the Bizarro Twins and go, Yeah, but what position is Christian Encarnacion-Strand gonna play? when Mahle only made nine starts and pitched 42 innings in Minnesota. Still, it was an example of the Twins being aggressive at the trade deadline while the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians stood pat. And regardless, the Arraez trade is different in meaningful ways.
First, the Twins traded for López in the off-season and received prospects as part of the deal. Generally, the team that trades away prospects takes on long-term risk. If Mahle becomes Minnesota’s fourth or fifth starter and they extend him, fewer people would be concerned about Spencer Steer and Encarnacion-Strand. For another example, trading Eduardo Escobar to the Arizona Diamondbacks for three prospects looked kittywampus until Jhoan Durán started throwing 103 with a “splinker” out of the bullpen. Will the Arraez trade turn like this? Not necessarily. But López can still balance the Arraez trade.
López doesn’t need to throw a complete-game shutout every time he takes the mound to even things out, although it would certainly help. Still, it’s worth looking at what he said when a reporter asked him about the Arraez trade after that outing.
No [he doesn’t compare himself to Arraez]. Obviously, we play different positions, so it’s hard to compare a lot of things. And it’s very obvious the great impact Luis has had in Miami. I think everyone has seen all the attention he’s getting, and rightfully so, because he’s doing something no one has been able to do in decades. You can see he’s going out there with the same approach, the same mentality, of doing it for the team. I just came in here and tried not to be anybody else. I tried to just come in here and let the Twins know who Pablo López is and then just like bring myself, bring my own stuff to the game. And then just let them know that I’m going to come in every day with the willingness to work as hard as I can to make sure that when I take the mound, I’m not doing it for myself but for the team. To put them in the best situation to win a ballgame.
For starters, López didn’t trade himself to Minnesota, so it’s not necessarily his responsibility to balance the trade. Ultimately, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine need to ensure their trades work out. Not all of them will, of course. But this was a big one. They removed Arraez from their lineup, and it wasn’t until now that someone emerged as a leadoff hitter. The Twins also have many hitters who strike out a lot, creating a vicious cycle where the lineup sees few pitches and good starters go deep into games.
But they also needed pitching.
Furthermore, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Royce Lewis are good contact hitters who are starting to balance the lineup. It’s unfair to compare Julien, a rookie, to Arraez. But they share some similar traits: Patient hitters, good eye, and, um, not great defense. Julien, 24, has more power and possesses the benefit of the unknown. What’s he going to be like after two years of at-bats? Or five? Kirilloff is managing his wrist injury and typically takes a good at-bat. Lewis transformed himself into a contact hitter before injuring his oblique. The Twins could fill the void Arraez left, and they needed pitching.
López has joined Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan to form a three-headed monster at the top of Minnesota’s rotation, one of the best in baseball. Eventually, they will need Ryan and López to become a one-two tandem once Gray, 33, leaves in free agency or becomes less effective. That’s why they signed López to a four-year, $73.5 million extension. His underlying numbers indicate he can pitch better than he is. Does that mean he will pitch a complete game every time out? No. López had all his pitches going, and the Kansas City Royals are terrible. But he can balance the trade if he and Ryan, who pitched a complete-game shutout earlier this year, are reliable starters at the top of the rotation for the foreseeable future.
