Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Wolves looked like they did some partying for New Year’s Eve before their Monday game against the Knicks, playing sluggish basketball for most of the game. Tonight is a good opportunity to bounce back though, which is what they always do. An impressive storyline in this Wolves season is that they’ve never lost consecutive games, plus they have the NBA’s best average margin and second-best ATS margin after a loss.
That might be why sharp money has been on Minnesota since this line opened, and I still like it here. The Wolves are still a strong ATS team at Target Center, they’ll be motivated off Monday’s loss, and are at full strength. They’ve already faced the Pelicans three times this season, with the only loss coming in a game Anthony Edwards missed, so I like them to bounce back again as they tend to do.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Pelicans/Wolves First Half Over 109.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
All three meetings this season have gone over this first half total with 116.7 points on average. Both of these teams score at a much higher rate in first halves than second halves, averaging several more PPG before halftime than after. The Wolves also tend to clamp down defensively after half as the league’s best second-half scoring defense, so look for this first half to clear the low total.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Indiana Pacers Under 258.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN
Taking the under in a Pacers game or a Bucks game is not for the faint of heart. So when these wild offenses square off it can be really scary. But we’ve already seen these teams play four times this season thanks to the in-season tournament, and they just don’t get to this level of scoring. Those meetings have gone 3-1 under this total with 249.5 points on average, and the one over needed a 64-point outburst from Giannis to get there.
All that’s needed to fall short of a total like this is a couple of slower minutes scattered throughout the game, and there have been plenty of those in the other meetings. This is just a case of perception driving the total too high, and with Milwaukee potentially missing Khris Middleton tonight I’m not seeing enough offense to reach it.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 56.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
I might like the under, but a total this high still creates a fertile environment for player props to go over. Especially with Giannis who has dominated the Pacers this season in all facets of the game. It helps to have two games of 50-plus points against them, but the Greek Freak has also had massive outings in rebounding and assisting against Indiana, resulting in a 64.6 average on this prop. With Middleton possibly out, even more of the load will fall on his shoulders, so expect another big night from Giannis against what is still a poor defensive team.
NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder/Atlanta Hawks Over 248 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
On the other hand, I just can’t quit overs when the Hawks are at home. Games in Atlanta this season are 10-3 to the over with the league’s highest plus/minus to the total. With the Hawks playing some of the NBA’s worst defense it’s no wonder those games tend to erupt, and another should be coming here against one of the top offensive teams in the league.
The Thunder match up very well here as one of the best overall shooting teams, and the league’s best from beyond the arc. The Hawks are allowing visiting teams to shoot 40.4% from deep, second-highest in the league, so OKC will pile up points from downtown. But this is also a back-to-back for the Thunder after a high-scoring game last night, and they’re 3-0 to the over this season on no rest. I expect the pace to be there, and plenty of three’s should drop to turn this into a high-scoring game.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz -8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
I hope the Pistons enjoyed that win over the weekend, because another long losing streak is likely in the works. They wasted no time getting back to being the Pistons we all know on Monday, kicking off 2024 with a 23-point loss. Now they have to travel to Utah where the Jazz own the league’s best ATS record and top plus/minus against the number. While it’s strange to see the Jazz listed as such a heavy favorite, I have to back them here given their success in the Delta Center.
Within their home ATS success is a 3-0 mark as a home favorite with the league’s best average ATS margin as well, so the Jazz always seem to come through. The Pistons are losing their road games by an average 13.6 point margin, already lost at home to a shorthanded Jazz team by 8, and should be in line for another beating tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1893-1700 ATS (+84.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
