Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans Team Total Over 112.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on YES
I want a way to fade this collapsing Brooklyn Nets team without having to lay a big number on the road. While the Pelicans have the ability to cover 8 points today, I’d rather rely on them to score the amount of points that would do it. New Orleans has been consistently climbing back after an awful shooting game last week to where they’ve been for most of their post-All Star break games.
That should continue here against a Nets team that can’t guard what the Pels do best – shoot the three, ranked 24th in opponent three-point percentage. The Nets have given up big point totals in this stretch of bad performances to much lesser offenses like Detroit and San Antonio, so expect this quietly excellent Pelicans team to score at will tonight.
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Colorado State/Virginia Under 120.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:10 PM CT on TruTV
I expect this game to be played at a near standstill, and I don’t see how either team does any scoring in that kind of game. Virginia is the slowest-paced team in the country while Colorado State is 270th in adjusted tempo, and the Rams have been getting much slower as the season has progressed. Both teams also have elite defenses which are particularly strong against what the other wants to do on offense. On a neutral court with a berth into the real dance at stake, expect this one to be a grind that finishes short of this total.
NCAA NIT (0.75 Unit) Cornell/Ohio State Over 155 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Early round NIT games are very often track meets as teams don’t take this tournament seriously until they accidentally get closer to a title. Ohio State might be a rare exception as they seem highly motivated behind their new coach, but this still shapes up as more of a free-flowing style of game that should result in points.
That style is likely to be driven by Cornell’s pace, ranked 26th in adjusted tempo with the 5th-shortest offensive possession length. The Big Red love to run up the floor and jack three’s, which is not something they’ll just abandon tonight. This Cornell team can really shoot it too, and a Buckeye defense that’s not good against the three-ball will give up plenty of points. But the Ohio State offense has really rounded into form down the stretch, and speeding them up should result in a game that gets into the 160s range.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2147-1934 ATS (+103.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
