Locks
NIT Tournament (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+100; Odds via Caesars)
Georgia @ Ohio State -400: 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
The Buckeyes are just on a mission to prove that their mid-season struggles are not what defines them. I think they handle Georgia easily here, but the number has gotten out of hand a little bit so I’ll just ask them to win straight up. The Bulldogs are only here because they beat a disinterested and unserious Wake Forest team, so a motivated Ohio State squad is going to be much different.
The Buckeye defense has been what’s improved the most under Jake Diebler, and they should have success shutting down a Georgia team that is not a good shooting bunch. With a big home court advantage and a lot of motivation, Ohio State should move on to the NIT semifinals here.
Cincinnati @ Indiana State -165: 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
There’s definitely some conference bias in this number as a Big12 school takes on a Missouri Valley program, and that’s why this spread was so short at open. But the smart money recognizes Indiana State’s strength here and drove the number up above a full possession. That has me looking moneyline though as Cincinnati tends to find themselves in tight, wild games pretty frequently.
I think the injury woes for the Bearcats catch up to them though, as missing starters Day Day Thomas and Viktor Lahkin makes it tough here. It’s a big hit to their defense that would present a tough challenge to Indiana State’s elite shooting, but the Sycamores had no trouble with a good Gophers shooting defense on Sunday. Indiana State looks determined to prove the selection committee wrong, notching two solid wins despite poor games from Robbie Avila, so I like them to move on tonight.
NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) Georgia/Ohio State Under 150.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
I mentioned how I think the Ohio State defense continues to improve here, and that should help keep this game under the total. The Buckeyes have an elite two-point defense, ranked 38th nationally in opponent two-point percentage, and Georgia is pretty terrible inside the arc. The Bulldogs get hardly any production from two’s, so that will keep easy points from piling up here.
The Georgia defense is also very strong overall at 55th in adjusted efficiency, and just held an explosive Wake offense to 66 points. Ohio State should be able to dictate a slower tempo here, and with defense usually picking up at this stage of the NIT, look for the metrics projections of mid-140s to hold true tonight.
Degenerates
NBA OKC Thunder/New Orleans Pelicans Under 223 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports NO
The Thunder have been on fire lately, but something about this matchup never produces points. These teams combined for 216 and 190 points in the previous meetings this season, not getting anywhere near the totals for those games. The number here has been crashing as a result, and with Brandon Ingram still out for the Pels it makes plenty of sense. New Orleans has been one of the better under teams all season, and these teams are a combined 14-6 to the under in their past 10 games, so despite the number coming down I’m on the under here.
Tiny Nick is 2172-1952 ATS (+106.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
