Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers @ Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
I’m not understanding why the Clippers are favored by this kind of number, but especially to a team that just ran them out of their own building. The Clips were big favorites when the 76ers came to LA and beat them by 14 points, which is becoming a common occurrence for them. LA is on a 3-9 ATS run right now, with the only covers coming against the Bulls twice and the lowly Blazers, and have been playing sub-.500 ball since early February.
While a lot of that is thanks to injuries and they’ll get Russell Westbrook back tonight, I’m just not able to take them seriously right now. Philly has been able to grind games down to their preferred style lately, and I think that allows them to hang in here to cover the big number.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Houston Rockets @ OKC Thunder -2.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OKC
As winners of 11 of their past 12 games, Houston might be the hottest team out there right now, but let’s pump the brakes a little. They’ve only beaten 3 teams with winning records all month, so they’ve been taking advantage of an extremely soft part of the schedule. It gets much harder today against one of the best teams in the league, and going on the road has not been Houston’s strong suit all year.
The Rockets have been particularly slow starters on the road, ranking 27th in average first quarter margin for road games. Going up against a Thunder team that is 3rd in the league for first quarter margin at home should see the Rockets come back down to earth a little bit.
NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) VCU/Utah Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
This game should be a three-point contest and another high-scoring affair in Salt Lake City. The past 8 home games for Utah have gone 7-1 over this total with 156.1 average points in regulation. And their two NIT games have flown over this total as the Utes have been hot from deep.
I think they keep that up and trade shots with a VCU team that is 35th nationally in three-point rate. The Rams are a slower-paced team, but have no experience with elevation so an up-tempo Utah squad should wear them out. VCU has the athleticism to get out in transition and the shooters to knock down plenty of three’s, and that should add up to plenty of scoring here.
CBI Tournament (0.5 Unit) High Point/Seattle Over 150.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Seattle brings a very good shooting defense into this game, but I don’t think that’s going to keep points off the board. The Redhawks are an especially elite three-point defense, but this High Point team doesn’t rely on the three-ball very much. Their specialty is scoring at the charity stripe, as the Panthers are 1st nationally in made free throws per game and 6th in attempts.
That should play out in their favor against a Seattle defense that is 308th in keeping their hands to themselves. A parade to the free throw line is a great recipe for points, especially in what should be a tight one down the stretch with foul-game potential in a championship game. With High Point’s defense also being pretty weak, look for both teams to leverage their advantages on offense and send this over the total.
CIT Tournament (0.75 Unit) Purdue Fort Wayne/Norfolk State Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
On paper this looks like a clash of styles that the slow-paced home team is going to end up dictating, but I think this game gets up and down the floor. Norfolk might be just 253rd in adjusted tempo, but their history against fast-paced teams this season has seen them willingly get into track meets. The Spartans are more of a pace taker than setter, and that should allow the visitors to turn up the tempo tonight.
Fort Wayne wants to run all night at 35th in adjusted tempo, and they have to in order to compensate for being one of the smallest teams in the country. But the Mastodons can really shoot it, and should have success against a porous Norfolk defense, especially from beyond the arc. Fort Wayne’s defense is in trouble though as that lack of size allows teams to get whatever they want inside. A Norfolk team that thrives on scoring at the rim and the free throw line will put up plenty of points on them en route to getting this over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2172-1953 ATS (+104.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
