The last time the Minnesota Vikings had an offseason quarterback search, they believed they were a quarterback away from Super Bowl contention. While their quarterback of choice, Kirk Cousins, never led them beyond a Divisional Round playoff game, it’s hard to dispute the Vikings’ belief that a team capable of reaching the NFC Championship game with Case Keenum could achieve greater heights with Cousins.
But this present Vikings bunch is more than a quarterback away.
Whether Kwesi Adofo-Mensah opts to re-sign Cousins, pursue another veteran, or go the draft-and-develop route, next year’s QB will require significant roster building around them for the Vikings to boost their 7-10 record. Better health would help, yes, but so would a deeper roster that can withstand injuries.
Below are the top three areas where the Vikings need help in 2024, along with a free-agency suggestion or two on how to fill it.
EDGE RUSHER
Independent of negotiations with Danielle Hunter, the Vikings must add more than one piece at the edge spot.
Even with Hunter — who put together another top-10 season in pressures — and a league-high team blitz rate that left cornerbacks exposed, the Vikings could only produce an average pressure rate (15th) and a below-average sack total (T-19th). In retrospect, Minnesota put too many eggs in the Marcus Davenport basket after the oft-injured former first-round pick played a meager 118 snaps due to ankle injuries. D.J. Wonnum‘s nine sacks were window-dressing on his fourth-straight inefficient pass-rushing season that ranked 94th out of 120 in pass-rushing productivity. Next in line was Patrick Jones II … who ranked 106th.
Jones and UDFA Andre Carter II are the team’s lone edge rushers under contract next year. Needless to say, re-signing Hunter would only get the Vikings back to the status quo of being pass-rush poor. Jones is the only edge rusher the Vikings have taken in the first three rounds of the draft since Hunter (2015), while Minnesota’s inability to make things work with Za’Darius Smith last offseason remains a head-scratcher. The latter falls largely on Rick Spielman, while the former falls on Adofo-Mensah, who seems content filling needs with short-term veteran signings in free agency. That’s not a terrible strategy if you’re drafting a pipeline to supplement, but the Vikings haven’t done that.
As I projected last week, Hunter may have a low likelihood of returning when faced with a bull market for his services. Pro Football Focus projects his annual salary over $21 million, which could end up being on the low end in a bidding war scenario. If the Vikings pony up, great. But they still need help. If they don’t, then they need tons of help and will need to invest high draft capital.
Free agency option(s): Adofo-Mensah loves finding underutilized or underachieving talents (think Harrison Phillips, Byron Murphy, or Davenport) entering their prime years. He could get one of each with Bryce Huff and Chase Young. Huff is a 25-year-old former UDFA who popped in limited duty in 2022 and thrived in a bigger role in 2023 with the New York Jets. Playing under Robert Saleh’s 4-3, he would need to be a fit in Flores’s 3-4 defense and prove he could be an every-down player.
But Huff graded out as the second-most efficient pass rusher in the NFL this year with 67 pressures in 334 pass-rush snaps. Meanwhile, Young would fit Adofo-Mensah’s affinity for finding former first-round picks (Jalen Reagor, N’Keal Harry, etc). After injuries derailed two consecutive seasons for the former No. 2-overall pick, Young has played a healthy, 66-pressure season split between Washington and San Francisco. There may still be enough trepidation around Young’s health to keep his price lower and his term shorter, which is music to Adofo-Mensah’s ears.
CORNERBACK
The Vikings schemed their way to a respectable pass defense until things fell apart in the final four weeks when opponents threw for 1,148 yards and just one interception. Byron Murphy’s knee injury seemingly exposed Minnesota’s lack of depth, which they’d hidden for much of the year with good secondary health (and a roomful of safeties willing to play in the nickel). Ultimately, Murphy finished 61st of 80 qualified corners, while Evans finished 71st, and the Vikings benched him multiple times late in the season for his reluctance to tackle. Mekhi Blackmon was a bright spot in a smaller sample size, ranking 31st of 133 corners who played 20% of snaps.
Minnesota has a positive outlook at corner with Evans, Blackmon, and Murphy back next year, along with UDFA project Jaylin Williams and former second-round pick Andrew Booth Jr. They also need more assurances than the presumption their young players will improve, especially if they’re running back Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme.
Free agency option(s): Steven Nelson keeps churning out solid seasons under the radar and would be available on a modest short-term deal. He’s played 900 or more snaps in six straight years, has a career completion percentage against of 57.9, and a passer rating against of 83.8. At almost age 31, some might worry about him falling off a cliff, but his track record is impeccable. And since the Vikings didn’t really have a true slot corner this past year, how about Kenny Moore II out of Indianapolis? Slots are always more affordable, and at age 30, Moore wouldn’t come expensively. Moore has a nose for the football, with 17 career interceptions and 32 PBUs, but his tackling might be suspect.
KICKER
Instead of slamming you over the head with how awful the Vikings’ defensive tackles were this year and making a plea to sign Leonard Williams (they should), I’m using this space to notify you that Greg Joseph delivered a third-straight below-average year.
With over 100 field goal attempts as a Viking, we have enough data to conclude that Joseph is not among the league’s best. Quite the opposite. His year-by-year accuracy ranks are 18th, 28th, and 28th. When the last three years get lumped together, Joseph’s 82.2% is the lowest among kickers with 100 or more attempts and the fifth-worst out of 32 with 50 or more attempts. The only four worse were Wil Lutz (who was traded), Mason Crosby (who struggled to find work this year), Brandon McManus (cut by Denver), and Jason Sanders.
Long-distance kicks are even worse. Joseph has the lowest percentage on kicks 40 and beyond (65.3) of all 25 kickers with 30 or more attempts. The 29-year-old was ballyhooed for his accuracy inside of 40 yards on field goals, which has been a robust 98.1% in his three seasons (51/52). That’s great, but it’s also not uncommon for NFL kickers. Eight other kickers with 20 or more attempts haven’t missed a single attempt, and the league average sits at 95.5%. Essentially, Joseph is one make better than average on the easiest NFL kicks — though extra points remain a struggle for him.
Joseph’s contract is up, and there are ample options for an upgrade.
Free agency option(s): Nick Folk, Ka’imi Fairbairn, Joey Slye, Greg Zuerlein, and Chase McLaughlin all have better three-year averages than Joseph. Folk and Fairbairn are over 80% on kicks 40 yards or more in that span.
But let me reiterate: The Vikings should also find a 3-technique.
