Vikings

Kirk Cousins' Ceiling Was Always the Floor

Photo Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

In 2017, the University of North Carolina called upon Michael Jordan to hype up a packed house for the upcoming football season.

“I’m extremely proud of what coach [Larry] Fedora has done for the football team, and I think bigger and better things are about to happen,” he proclaimed. “The ceiling is the roof. Let’s make it happen. Let’s keep it moving forward.”

The Tar Heels finished 3-9 that year, 1-7 in the ACC, and fired Fedora. Even MJ couldn’t keep the roof from caving in.

Still, Jordan’s statement is kinda funny. The ceiling is the roof; it’s a matter of perspective. Look up from your living room, and you’ll see the ceiling. But look around while cleaning your gutters, and you’ll see the roof. Regardless, you’re looking at the top of your house.

Kirk Cousins established himself as an everyman in Netflix’s Quarterback docuseries; maybe he cleans his own gutters. However, he needn’t climb far. His floor is the ceiling, and he’s made nearly $300 million in his career by reducing the distance between the top of his chimney and the fireplace.

Cousins may be afraid of heights, but he never had to worry about the fall. Millions of people want to quarterback an NFL team, but only 32 start on Sundays. Cousins has talked about how he operates on the razor’s edge. The former fourth-round pick Washington drafted to back up Robert Griffin III believes that he must do everything to maximize his ability to stay in the league.

He’s a perfectionist by trade. Cousins has made 157 starts in 13 years because he has precise footwork and methodically goes through his reads. He used to have exceptional arm strength and be sneaky fast. However, Cousins was never an elite quarterback who drove winning. Instead, he cashed in on reducing the fall.

Cousins has an 82-73-2 record. He’s tied twice in the NFL. Cousins is also a .500 quarterback outside of 2019, when he went 10-5-0 playing behind an elite defense* and with a cache of offensive weapons, and 2022, when the Vikings went 11-1 in one-score games. He’s only won one playoff game.

The Vikings signed Cousins to a three-year, $84 million, fully guaranteed contract under the auspices that they were a quarterback away from contending. All they needed was a Joe Flacco– or Trent Dilfer-type QB to lead their league-best defense. However, Minnesota doubled and tripled down on him because the front office was worried about the roof caving in.

Minnesota’s front office felt they had built a strong foundation. They just needed a good enough quarterback to take them to new heights. Instead, the furthest the Vikings got was to the second round of the playoffs. Kevin O’Connell got more out of Cousins than Mike Zimmer. Still, even in Minnesota’s 13-win season two years ago, Daniel Jones and the New York Giants eliminated them in the first round.

The Vikings balked when the Atlanta Falcons offered Cousins a $180 million deal with $100 million guaranteed. They were wise to pass on him. Cousins, 36 and coming off an Achilles injury, has his lowest QBR since his third year in the league. He threw four interceptions last Sunday, and none of his passes exceeded 36 mph. Minnesota can solidify its decision to move on from him this Sunday. Brian Flores’ defense could send Cousins to the bench in favor of Michael Penix Jr.

“I know the narrative is that he had a tough game last week, but he’s played some good football. People in this building know what Kirk can do,” said Flores. “I know he’s a bounce-back type of guy, so I’m expecting his best.”

Cousins said he had trouble with Flores’ unique defense early in camp last year. Still, Flores is wise not to tempt fate. Cousins is familiar with his defense and was playing his best football before his injury last year. Flores’ disguise-heavy, blitz-based defense should suppress Cousins’ output. However, Cousins is also playing to keep his starting job, and Atlanta is in the playoff hunt.

It’s hard not to think about the worst-case scenario here. The Vikings are off to a 10-2 start, close enough to grasp the No. 1 seed if the Detroit Lions falter. By moving on from Cousins and signing Sam Darnold, they’ve learned that O’Connell can bring out the best in flawed quarterbacks. They don’t need Cousins to avoid cratering with an expensive, talented roster.

Instead, they must acknowledge that the threat of falling is part of the ascent. Darnold can be turnover-prone. However, he pushes the ball downfield, operates well in the pocket, and moves on from mistakes. In many ways, Darnold is the anti-Cousins. He excels at many of Cousins’ shortcomings.

It won’t be fun if Cousins comes into U.S. Bank Stadium and pulls off a 5.5-point upset. It’ll feel like crashing through the roof, falling at terminal velocity through the basement and the house’s foundation, deep into the earth’s molten core. However, that sinking feeling is a fear of heights. It’s confirmation that the Vikings are on the roof, reaching for the stars. Their ceiling is no longer the floor.

*An earlier version of this post misstated the ranking of Minnesota’s defense. We regret the error.

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Photo Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

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