Back in the day, it wasn’t uncommon for teams to succeed with only one bona fide star at receiver. But as passing continued to take off, having a dynamic duo became the priority. Nowadays, WR3s and WR4s are valuable pieces on most teams’ rosters. You simply can’t have enough dynamic weapons in the passing game in the modern NFL, and that’s especially true with Kevin O’Connell’s offense.
O’Connell has used 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers) for most of his time in Minnesota. Even as the Vikings experimented with the combination of two tight ends in Josh Oliver and T.J. Hockenson at times last year, 11-personnel was still Minneosta’s favorite personnel grouping by a wide margin at over 43% of their offensive snaps in 2023. Your third-best wide receiver will see a lot of playing time in this offense.
According to Pro Football Reference, last year’s WR2 and WR3 had a snap percentage of 82% for Addison and 73% for Osborn. Even accounting for slight inflation with Justin Jefferson missing time, that’s nothing to scoff at. And with Hockenson likely to miss time early in the season, the Vikings will also need to stack offensive weapons to compensate.
But with their longtime WR3 in K.J. Osborn headed for free agency, the Vikings need to be aggressive in filling this need. For the sake of discussion, let’s assume the Jefferson extension happens, and the best receiver in football remains in Minnesota. Let’s review the options.
Option 1: Re-sign K.J. Osborn
This one is the least inspiring to me. Osborn had plenty of opportunities to step up and meaningfully contribute this season. Instead, he had the least-productive year of his career outside of when he sat on the bench as a rookie. I understand that the Vikings quarterbacks were far from adequate by the end of the year. But all those snaps given to Osborn to help lift the offense in Jefferson’s absence came up with a lackluster return. Jordan Addison passed him up, and Osborn was a disappearing act far too often.
He’s also about to become much more expensive. Spotrac projects Osborn’s market value at $7.5 million annually over the next two years. For a slumping player, that’s too rich for my blood.
Option 2: Sign A Veteran Free Agent
This is a valid option that’s intriguing for many reasons. With Jefferson and Addison proving they can provide the elite upside, it may make sense for O’Connell to ask Kwesi Adofo-Mensah for a more proven commodity as his third receiver. He needs a professional player who can be exactly where the quarterback needs him to be on crucial third downs.
There are some exciting options in the veteran receiver market. Familiar names from the fantasy waiver of years past could now be a key member of Minnesota’s passing game. Guys like Tyler Boyd, Darnell Mooney, and Gabe Davis highlight this group of free agents as reasonably priced options. They’d all be examples of reliable players that you can count on but with underwhelming upsides as truly exceptional difference-makers.
Odell Beckham Jr. may be the most fun player in this free agency class. He’s far from the elite game-changer he once was. But he’s got experience in the McVay system and would be a fun LSU connection with Justin Jefferson. Again, I said fun, not cost-effective.
Option 3: Make Wide Receiver A Priority Early In the Draft
With the proliferation of spread offenses in the college game and the diversity of athletic profiles and body types being funneled into the receiver position at the high school level, the receiver position seemingly gets better with each passing draft class. The Ringer’s Ben Solak is one of my favorite draft gurus, and he’s said many times that we’ll “never see a bad wide receiver class ever again.”
The proof is in the pudding. Every year, there are examples of receivers who pop off early in their careers at the NFL level from Day 2 and 3 of the draft.
A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, D.K. Metcalf, and Davante Adams all come to mind. Most recently, two of the most dynamic rookie receivers, Tank Dell and Puka Nacua, were third- and fifth-round picks, respectively. Anecdotally, we can all name dynamic players at the receiver position that were drafted after Day 1. Conor McQuiston wrote a fascinating analysis of this phenomenon for PFF. While the best of the best at receiver often come from Round 1, there’s reason to view Round 2 and beyond as safer investments at the position.
This 2024 is also a fun class to take that approach. Guys like Michigaon’s Roman Wilson and Western Kentucky’s Malachi Corley are fascinating players who have emerged post-Senior Bowl. They are examples of the kind of variety and depth at receiver that could be there for the Vikings in the second and third rounds. There are little guys like Texas’s Xavier Worthy or route-running specialists like Florida’s Ricky Pearsall. There are even 6’7″ monsters like Florida State’s Johnny Wilson.
With Jefferson and Addison, the Vikings don’t need a superstar at WR3. But they need someone who can make the most of that valuable playing time on the field and provide the versatility the Vikings value at the position. Jefferson and Addison move all around the formation, so ideally, their WR3 can feature the same type of inside/outside versatility. They don’t need to feel pigeonholed into a specific body type, but they may value a diversity of skills.
Whoever Kevin O’Connell hand-picks for his offense has options in this draft class that should excite Minnesota’s front office. WR3 is a pseudo-starter in this offense, which merits a worthwhile investment. If they play it safe with a veteran, I won’t fault the team, but I’d love to see another young asset grow alongside Jefferson and Addison. And with Jefferson about to break the bank, securing that WR3 on a cheap rookie deal is pretty appealing.
Receivers are fun and flashy, but in the modern NFL, teams can’t overlook them as a position of value. Especially if the Vikings are trying to cash in on the tail end of Cousins’ career or break in a rookie instead. It’s a cliché, but it’s true: you can never have too many weapons.
