You still remember the catch. You know the one. It’s Week 10 in Buffalo. Facing fourth-and-18 with two minutes left in a game where they trail 27-23, the Minnesota Vikings look like they are regressing in real-time. They had escaped Washington with a win the week before. They were 45 seconds away from losing to the Detroit Lions in Week 3. A missed field goal away from overtime against the undermanned New Orleans Saints in London. The Vikings had let the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins back into games they didn’t belong in before the bye week.
Yet, somehow, the Vikings were 7-1 going into their game against the Buffalo Bills in Western New York. Kirk Cousins later said he told Justin Jefferson that he was going to him coming out of the huddle following the two-minute warning. Who else would he throw it to, given the down and distance? Cousins dropped back, waited for a beat, then launched a pass toward Jefferson. Bills corner Cam Lewis looked like he had secured the ball with both hands, but Jefferson ripped it free and corralled it as he dropped to the ground.
The Vikings didn’t score on that drive. They got to the one-yard line, but Cousins fumbled it. However, Josh Allen fumbled in the end zone on the next play, and Eric Kendricks scored the touchdown to go ahead 30-27. Buffalo tied it on the next drive, but Minnesota won in overtime. The memory is vivid enough that you know it happened, but the whole season felt like a fever dream. The Dallas Cowboys blew them out 40-3, but they beat the New England Patriots on a short week. The Lions beat them by 11 in Detroit, but they came back from down 33 to beat the Indianapolis Colts six days later.
Minnesota’s 2022 season ended with a blowout loss in Lambeau, a meaningless win in Chicago, and a playoff loss to Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. That’s fundamentally weird, but it validated the idea that Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer had a competitive roster; the Vikings just needed a better culture. But then Minnesota’s front office purged the roster of veterans. They cut Adam Thielen, Kendricks, and Dalvin Cook. The Vikings extended Cousins, but only for one year, $35 million, and didn’t come to an agreement with Jefferson.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah probably didn’t mean for “competitive rebuild” to become the catchphrase most people associate with him. He was stating the obvious: Minnesota’s roster was too good to tear down in the first year, but he would eventually overhaul it. Similarly, some people pilloried Adofo-Mensah for saying that his only hesitation with not fully rebuilding immediately is that the Vikings don’t have a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady. He was just being honest.
But Adofo-Mensah has an opportunity to get his Mahomes this year.
The Vikings moved on from Cousins this offseason when the Atlanta Falcons offered him $100 million and traded up for the Houston Texans’ No. 23 pick in the draft. Minnesota has positioned themselves to create a package for the New England Patriots’ third-overall selection, allowing them to get Drake Maye if he falls.
But in doing so, the Vikings are losing a lot of value. They sent pick 42 in the second round, No. 188 in the sixth round, and a 2025 seventh-rounder to Houston for No. 23 and No. 232 in the seventh round. They also will lose value if they trade up with New England, who will likely want both of Minnesota’s first-rounders this year and next year’s first-round pick for No. 3. The Vikings also have multiple dead-cap hits from guaranteeing Cousins so much money: $28.5 million this year, $10.5 million next year, and $4 million in 2026 and 2027. The NFL’s most value-driven GM knows a simple truth about league finances. There’s nothing more valuable than a star quarterback on a rookie contract.
Adofo-Mensah has gotten progressively more aggressive every year. He rolled it back with Spielman and Zimmer’s team, then cut three established veterans. Now he has the ammo to go all-in on a rookie quarterback this year. He also bolstered the defense by adding Jonathan Greenard, Blake Cashman, and Andrew Van Ginkel. In the process, the Vikings said goodbye to 2015 draft pick Danielle Hunter. Sam Darnold and a rookie quarterback will cost less than Cousins’ cap hit. Aaron Jones signed a one-year, $7 million deal and will wear Cook’s old No. 33.
The Vikings enter Year 3 under Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell in a similar spot as Year 1, but with a different cast of characters. Many people felt that Adofo-Menah should reset the roster immediately and have it ready to win by the third year of his four-year contract. Instead, Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell showed proof of concept in Year 1 and will try to replicate it with their own roster this season and next.
Currently, the Vikings are feeling the effects of their 13-win season. They probably would not have extended Cousins if they had lost more close games that year. However, Cousins earned generational wealth representing certainty in an uncertain game, and Minnesota was still trying to win. However, the Vikings will enter next season with a great unknown. Did Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell show us a proof of concept in 2022? Or was their 13-win season an aberration that cost them dead-cap hits until 2027?
Jefferson will make catches like the one he had in Buffalo for years to come if Adofo-Mensah finds his Mahomes in this year’s draft. Otherwise, it will become a fading memory of a season that always felt too good to be true.
