The Minnesota Vikings’ plan for this offseason is this close to happening.
The first step was peeling away the layers of highly paid veterans who were past their prime. Next was finding their quarterback of the future in the 2024 draft. And the final step was designed to happen this offseason when the Vikings would use their newfound cap space to fill in the remaining holes and build a contender.
But when Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell concocted this plan, it may have had a different look. This offseason would have been the final puzzle piece, a big move that would signal to the rest of the league that the Vikings had arrived and were legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Instead, it feels like a trip to the grocery store on payday, where Adofo-Mensah is scrolling through his phone and trying to remember what else he needs.
It started with the 2022 draft, which has turned out to be one of the worst in franchise history. Lewis Cine, Ed Ingram, and Andrew Booth Jr. became busts, and the Vikings couldn’t find starting-level production from any of the remaining picks. However, Jalen Nailor, Ty Chandler, and Brian Asamoah remain on the team.
They landed Jordan Addison in the 2023 draft but not much else. Mekhi Blackmon had a promising rookie season before suffering an ACL tear during training camp. Jay Ward hasn’t made much of an impact, although a report from The Athletic’s Alec Lewis suggested many Vikings coaches had grown fond of his play.
Then there’s the 2024 draft class, which is yet to be decided. J.J. McCarthy appears to be progressing after a season-ending injury, while Dallas Turner and Will Reichard contributed to Minnesota’s 14-3 season. Other than that, it’s a bunch of long-term projects, including Walter Rouse, Michael Jurgens, and Levi Drake Rodriguez.
Not every draft class will look like 2015 – a class so good that Rick Spielman got himself fired for trying to replicate it on too many occasions. Still, it would have been nice for the Vikings to get something out of Adofo-Mensah’s first three classes.
Consider if Ingram had panned out. The Vikings wouldn’t be looking for a guard in free agency and may not be scrambling after the Kansas City Chiefs franchise-tagged Trey Smith.
Think if Andrew Booth Jr. and Lewis Cine had become mainstays in the secondary. Camryn Bynum and Byron Murphy Jr. might not be the “must-haves” the Vikings are facing right now, and they wouldn’t be looking for replacements if they decide to leave.
Much of Minnesota’s roster needs results from misses in the 2022 class, but it’s true for all of Adofo-Mensah’s drafts. Would the Vikings need a running back if Chandler or DeWayne McBride panned out? Jaquelin Roy’s development could have saved the Vikings the trouble of potentially overpaying Milton Williams.
Even Jaren Hall could have saved the Vikings some money had he developed into a suitable backup instead of paying roughly $10 million for Daniel Jones.
There’s a free-agent tax that teams pay for their front-office mishaps. Sometimes, it comes at a good time when a player like Steve Hutchinson becomes available. However, sometimes it means spending big on a receiver in a year when the top option is Bernard Berrian.
Look at Minnesota’s pursuit of a free-agent guard. Smith is off the board, and the next best option is Will Fries, who posted an 86.9-overall Pro Football Focus grade last season. However, he did so on 268 pass-blocking snaps before breaking his tibia. In a larger sample size, Fries ranked 32nd among 79 qualifying guards with a 61.2-overall grade, and Spotrac projects him to cost $14.1 million per season.
Patrick Mekari is another popular name. Mekari is a Swiss Army knife in the trenches but ranked 51st out of 77 qualifiers with a 59 overall grade last season on a career-high 1,131 snaps. Spotrac values him at $10.3 million.
Even if you don’t want to commit long-term, a player like 34-year-old Kevin Zeitler would cost the Vikings $9.2 million.
It’s like the markup on a used car lot that makes you think you’re getting a superior vehicle. Then, the next thing you know, your front tire is flying into a ditch on 494. It goes against Adofo-Mensah’s efforts to seek value throughout his tenure in Minnesota. It’s also frustrating, considering the Vikings could spend that money more positively, such as retaining Murphy, Bynum, or another free agent.
For example, the Detroit Lions have used most of their money to lock up core players like Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Penei Sewell. After retaining their building blocks, supplemental signings have helped the Lions contend annually, leaving enough to lock up the next core piece to come along.
Minnesota’s free-agent tax won’t be a big deal if it can find the right pieces. However, it could be a detriment if they can’t find those players in the draft the next couple of seasons.
It’s why free agency isn’t the celebration it should have been when the front office hatched its plan and could be a case of “buyer beware” in the coming weeks.
