Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Donovan Mitchell Over 25.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NBCSN
Time will tell if the Pistons learned anything or got a wakeup call from their first round series, but this should be another tightly contested round for both teams. That should mean more minutes and more usage for the stars, giving Mitchell plenty of opportunity to rack up points tonight.
Spida only played in 2 of the 4 regular season meetings, but dropped 30 and 35 points in those games, and that was before the Cavs acquired James Harden to pull defensive attention away from Mitchell. The first round taught us that the Pistons can struggle to contain the lead scorer as Paolo Banchero averaged 26.3 for the series, so I like Mitchell’s chances to at least match that level of production here.
NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder Team Total Over 114.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on NBC
This might be a quick series. It was ugly in the regular season, with the Thunder sweeping the 4 meetings, and the closest LA was able to stay being a 9-point loss in the one game Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed. Throughout those games OKC was only fully healthy once, dropping 139 points in a game where the starters played very limited minutes, so I’m not concerned about Jalen Williams being out tonight. With 121, 119, and 123 points in the other meetings as a short-staffed squad, the Thunder have proven that the Lakers have no answer for their offense and I think the home team gets rolling offensively to start this series.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder First Half Team Total Over 60 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
The only thing that can beat this bet is rust, which is a legitimate concern for a team that’s had a full week off between games. But OKC’s sweep of the Suns saw them clear this first half team total in every game, averaging 66.8 points in the process. And the consistency on display in the regular season series against the Lakers that has me liking the full-game team total was also there in every first half. The Thunder once again went over this number in all 4 games, and in the 3 where they weren’t at full strength they still averaged 67.3 first half points, so this should be relatively easy for them.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Washington Nationals Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:45 PM CT on MLB.TV
Nationals Park will be acting like Wrigley East tonight, as a big wind is blowing out to dead center on a warm day. So conditions are optimal here, and it’s a question of whether these offenses can take advantage of two surprisingly decent starting pitchers. I think they can, as both Taj Bradley and Cade Cavalli have solid surface numbers, but their expected metrics show that some regression should be coming.
And then there are the bullpens, which should play a significant role in tonight’s game since neither starter tends to pitch very deep into games. Those are two of the worst units in the league, especially from a basic ERA and WAR standpoint with both sitting towards the bottom of the league. The relievers for both teams are also due for regression, and hitting conditions like this can easily deliver it, so I’ll expect runs with two of the league’s better over teams in action here.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125; Odds via Fanduel): 5:45 PM CT on MLB.TV
This is too good a price to pass up with a guy that’s 12th in baseball for batting average. Especially considering the matchup he has here against Toronto starter Kevin Gausman, who’s mostly been great this year but struggles against Tampa and Diaz in particular. It isn’t a huge sample size, but in 12 at-bats against the Jays righty, Diaz is batting .583 with a 1.476 OPS. Add in that he’s raking at a .326 average against righties in general and averaging 1.9 bases per game on the season, I have to take advantage of this generous juice.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
The league leader in batting average shouldn’t be priced this way against a rookie starter. Vargas has been ridiculous with his MLB-best .382 average, which gets even better at .395 now that the Diamondbacks have returned home. Facing Pirates rookie phenom Bubba Chandler doesn’t scare me much since Chandler has been struggling on the road. He’s also been much more vulnerable against lefthanded bats, which Vargas can be as a switch hitter. The bottom line though is that juice like this for a guy raking the way he is and averaging 2.6 bases per game is not appropriate pricing, and I’ll take a shot at the juicy return.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-16 (-1.89 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
