Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs +6.5 @ OKC Thunder (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on NBC
This has the potential to be such an epic conference finals, the de facto league finals if you’re into that sort of narrative, and so it’s tough to definitively back one side or the other. That’s the case overall and for this Game 1, but it comes down to a debate of rest versus rust, and I have to side with rust being a factor here.
The Thunder have had a full week off since sweeping the Lakers, while San Antonio was dealing with those pesky Wolves, although they coasted in the final two games so it wasn’t terribly strenuous. I think those probably serve more as tune-ups for this series, giving San Antonio an advantage over a potentially rusty OKC squad. Rust was evident in Game 1 of last series and the lowly Lakers couldn’t exploit it, but an elite level team like the Spurs is not going to let them off the hook. There’s a reason why the Spurs went 4-1 against the Thunder this season, so I’ll take the points here and hope for a sluggish version of OKC tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Stephon Castle Over 16.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
If the Spurs have any chance in this series, they’ll need big contributions from Castle. He was integral in that 4-1 regular season record against OKC, averaging 19.8 points and going over this total in 4 of the 5 games. He also went over this number in 5 of the 6 games against the Wolves, and really hasn’t had a poor game all postseason, so I’ll back him to keep making key contributions.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Ajay Mitchell Over 12.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
The Thunder discovered something with Mitchell last round out of necessity, but now that Jalen Williams is back, it doesn’t make sense to just discard that find. Williams probably won’t be on a full workload, giving Mitchell plenty of opportunity but against the second unit for San Antonio instead of starters like last round. This is a precipitous drop in his points total compared to last round, and I don’t think his role will be different enough to justify that change in the number, so take the over here.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+145; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
There’s something going on in Tampa, and the respect for this Rays team just hasn’t shown up in the betting market yet. This team just continues to get it done, being the first to reach 30 wins on the season, but also rewarding bettors who back them like this. The Rays are the second-best cover team in the league, but at home they lead the league in run line wins at 15-6 this season including 10-2 as a home favorite.
Typically you don’t want to back home favorites on the run line because they lose an at-bat in the ninth, but Tampa is bucking that logic and I am too in this game. They should beat up on Trevor Rogers who seems to have lost his form from last season, getting knocked around in 4 consecutive starts. Compare that to Rays starter Shane McClanahan who’s been untouchable in 4 straight starts, and has a 0.87 ERA at home this season. I’m often gun shy about this kind of play, but with such a strong record and a juicy return, I think the Rays can only be backed on the run line tonight.
MLB (1 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9.5 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
This total is headed to a flat 10 in a hurry, and for good reason, so the difference doesn’t really bother me here. There should be runs galore in this matchup of terrible pitchers, excellent offenses, and basically perfect conditions. Citizens Bank Park will see 90 degree temperatures and a big wind blowing out to dead center tonight, creating ideal hitting conditions that these offenses should exploit all night.
The Phillies have woken up and the offense is a big reason why. They just put up a ton of runs against elite Pirates pitching over the weekend, and now get to face Nick Lodolo who’s been terrible in both starts, and a Reds bullpen that might be the worst in the league. That bad overall pitching is a big reason why Cincinnati is the league’s second-best over team, but so is their deep lineup. Phillies rookie starter Andrew Painter has been figured out in recent starts, and the Reds have been scoring in bunches themselves, so this sets up as an easy over.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 18-13 (+1.26 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
