Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Washington Nationals Team Total Over 3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:45 PM CT on MLB.TV
We’re going to have to put Jesus Luzardo’s strange home/road splits to the test here. He has a 6.60 ERA at home but just a 1.55 on the road, although he’s benefited from facing some teams away from home that really struggle against lefties. That is not the case with Washington, as the Nationals lead baseball in batting average, OPS, weighted on-base average, and weighted runs created-plus against lefties. This surprising Nats squad just keeps being undervalued and counted out, but I see an opportunity to jump on a lower number here for the league’s highest-scoring team.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs/NY Mets Over 8.5 (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 6:10 PM CT on MLB.TV
This game might very well get rained out for a second straight night, but if they play, and these are the starting pitchers, then runs will be coming. It’s a matchup of meatballers as Edward Cabrera starts for the Cubs while Kodai Senga gets another turn for the Mets here. Cabrera has been downright bad lately, posting a 7.59 ERA across his May and June starts, giving up a lot of home runs while facing some questionable lineups.
The Mets really struggle against righties in general, but with Cabrera’s history against some of the weakest teams in baseball recently, I’ll give this high-priced lineup the benefit of the doubt. They’d better produce if they want to support Senga here, as he’s been dreadful all season. The proud owner of a 9.00 ERA, Senga gave up 7 runs the last time he saw the Cubs. Both of these lineups have too much talent in them to struggle against this poor of pitching, so this matchup has to produce a lot of runs.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles -1.5 @ LA Angels (+105; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on MLB.TV
Don’t look now, but the Orioles are actually playing decent baseball. This high-priced and talent-rich team has been a massive disappointment all year, but this is a spot where they should be able to stomp a much more disappointing opponent. With Mike Trout back on the IL, this Angels team just doesn’t have enough offense to compensate for what they’re about to give up tonight.
LA has rookie Ryan Johnson getting another start here as their rotation has been riddled with injuries, and that’s not a good thing. Johnson’s two starts have been abject disasters, and even his relief appearances aren’t much better, and a 12.83 ERA with a 2.33 WHIP is the result. Baltimore certainly has the bats to jump all over him and then one of the league’s worst bullpens. I have my questions about O’s starter Shane Baz, but this is just a talent and depth mismatch at an attractive price, so I’ll lay the run line here.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) NY Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on USA Network
Both of these teams have been overpriced in the market all season, evidenced by them both having negative average ATS margins despite winning records straight up. So this line makes sense from that standpoint, but not from a talent or level of play standpoint. That’s all advantage Aces, since I’m seeing the end of the dynasty run for New York as Breanna Stewart’s age is catching up to her, and Jonquel Jones seems out of shape.
The Aces should take advantage of both of those in this Commissioner’s Cup Final preview. The Liberty really struggle defensively on the road, and the Aces have figured out whatever issues were plaguing them in early home games this season. Sunday’s dismantling of a great Valkyries defense, even without Chennedy Carter, showed what this Aces offense can do, so a Liberty squad allowing the 3rd-most points overall and 4th-most per possession in road games should be in trouble here. If the Aces can cover this number against a hungry Lynx squad that was playing elite ball, they can do the same here to what I see as an overvalued Liberty team.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 10-13 (-2.93 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
