Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/Washington Nationals Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:45 PM CT on MLB.TV
Hopefully Kyle Schwarber and CJ Abrams are ok for this game, as their offensive contributions would be helpful in reaching double-digit runs. But with these two starting pitchers, I’m not sure it will matter much. There should be plenty of meatballs thrown by Miles Mikolas, who reminds us who he truly is every time there’s a glimmer of hope. His 6.37 ERA at home, where all but two of his starts have reached double-digit runs, will be a major factor here, as will the awful bullpen behind him.
But as we saw yesterday and throughout the season, this Nationals team can hit against anyone. The league’s highest-scoring team with a 27-11-2 over record at home should jump on Aaron Nola here. The Phillies righty has been good for multiple runs allowed in all but two starts this season, and the Nats are crushing righthanded pitching this season. It’s either feast or famine when these teams get together, with outputs of 15, 5, 11, 5, and finally 23 runs last night, but with these starters on a hot night in DC, the runs should be coming again.
MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
In a mismatch the size of the Dodgers versus the Triple-A Twins, with Shohei Ohtani on the mound for LA, the numbers should be skewed heavier towards the visitor here. But add in Joe Ryan starting for the Twins and the full game total gets heavily deflated, creating an opportunity here. Ryan is good, but I’m not sure he’s hold-the-Dodgers-down good, especially when they broke out of a mini slump last night. He also doesn’t typically pitch deep into games, meaning the worst bullpen in the league has to face this elite lineup. In a typical overall talent mismatch like this you’d expect to see the Dodgers team total a run higher, so I’ll buy in at what I see as a discounted number.
WNBA (0.25 Unit) Minnesota Lynx @ Washington Mystics +9.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on Victory+
I can’t believe I’m going against my Lynx here, but this number simply doesn’t make sense. I thought maybe the line was steaming hard towards Minnesota with the expectation that Napheesa Collier was returning today, but that has been pushed back again to next week. The Lynx are the best ATS team in the league, especially on the road, and will be out for revenge tonight after the Mystics shocked them at Target Center on Sunday.
But Washington is hot right now, taking down the Liberty and Lynx in consecutive road games, and catching this many points at home is too big of a number to lay with Minnesota. While the Lynx might be the league’s best ATS team, the next-best happens to be the Mystics, so asking them to just not lose by double digits on their own floor doesn’t seem like asking much tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 10-14 (-4.03 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
