Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+120; Odds via Fanduel): 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network
I can’t pass up the plus money return on this one, not with the situation we have tonight. It’s a big game for the young Yankee righty, as he goes back to Fenway to face his hometown team. He’s already seen them twice this season, allowing just one earned run in both starts, and enters this game in good form after a 13-strikeout shutout performance last Friday.
Boston on the other hand does not enter in good form, as the Sox are near the bottom of the league in every metric against righthanded pitching, including dead last in scoring. They’re also the lowest-scoring home team in the league, and if that wasn’t bad enough, they’re on no rest from a west coast road trip and coming out of elevation in Denver. This sets up perfectly for the Sox to continue falling on their faces offensively, especially against a pitcher of Schlittler’s caliber who’s been elite on the road and has extra motivation tonight.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Zach Gallen Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 6:45 PM CT on MLB.TV
The fall-off for Gallen needs to be studied, but it’s definitely all coming apart now. Especially when the Diamondbacks ask him to pitch on the road, where he’s now carrying a 6.98 ERA, a 1.81 WHIP, and .335 opponent batting average. Gallen is in bad form overall, posting a 9.24 ERA in his past 5 starts, where he’s given up 8 or more hits in 4 of those including 12 to the Triple-A Twins last week. This young Cardinals team doesn’t really have any experience against Gallen, but the way he’s pitching right now and in away games has me interested in a nice plus-juice return.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Marina Mabrey Over 22.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video
With leading scorer Brittney Sykes sidelined for the foreseeable future, Mabrey is really the only scoring option Toronto has. Mabrey has stepped up into that role in the two games Sykes has missed so far, dropping 23 and 37 points as her usage and shot volume have exploded. Facing a weak Sparks defense here should allow her to continue that, even though LA held her in check for both of the previous meetings. But Sykes was the key contributor in those games, and Mabrey had lower minutes and very limited shot volume, so change those factors and she should find her way to another big game tonight.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Wings Team Total Over 86.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV
The approach to this game for Las Vegas will be interesting, since theoretically they should be highly motivated to take out some frustrations and exact some revenge. Frustrations over looking terrible at home once again on Tuesday as the Liberty beat them from the jump, and revenge for two lopsided losses to this Wings team in Dallas this season. The last one is still fresh, as the Aces took a 30-point beatdown just 10 days ago. But this seems like a matchup that just favors Dallas and their offense, as the Wings have hung 95 and 96 points in the two meetings.
I see two possible paths to Dallas clearing this total though, as they could be dragged up to this number by a Vegas team trying to run them out of the gym, or the matchup is simply in their favor and they continue to score at will. Either way, I’m willing to bet that the Aces defense just isn’t good enough right now to stop a high level offense, as they’ve allowed 91.8 PPG to top-5 offenses this season.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 10-14 (-4.53 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
