Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Washington Nationals Team Total Over 4.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on MLB.TV
Any time you can get a plus money return on the Nationals team total facing a lefty, you just have to take the opportunity. Credit to Orioles lefty Trevor Rogers for calming down in June after a horrendous May, part of a rough season overall, but he has faced three very soft lineups so far this month. The Nats are a top-5 offense no matter how you slice it, but against lefties they’re elite, leading in batting average, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ this season. Rogers has faced three of the top five offenses against lefties this season, racking up a 7.88 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in those games, so I’m happy to back Washington to keep piling on the runs like they’ve done all year.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:45 PM CT on Apple TV
How will The Miz respond to the end of a stretch where he allowed just one run in 54 innings? I’d say probably with a fury, especially since he’s pitching at home tonight. There couldn’t be a clearer distinction between his home and road strikeout numbers, as he’s averaging 10 per game at home but just 8.3 on the road. That comes from logging double-digit K’s in 5 home starts, and clearing this total in 6 of 8 starts at American Family Field, including 5 straight. To be fair to his opponent tonight, this Cubs team is not particularly strikeout-prone, but that hasn’t stopped him in the past, so I expect this bounce back effort to be another gem.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Mystics -4.5 @ Connecticut Sun (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION
After consecutive impressive showings against the elite Lynx, I’m going to continue to ride this Mystics team. It’s probably the biggest step down in competition level you can have in this league as they face the Sun tonight, and it’s a shorthanded version at that. Connecticut will be without their leading scorer, rebounder, and assister tonight, along with Hailey Van Lith being out.
There’s an even bigger health advantage for the Mystics here as they get back leading rebounder Shakira Austin, who missed the previous meeting last week that still ended in a 7-point Mystics win. Washington was able to flex their strength inside without her, so tonight I think they can definitely dominate a Sun frontcourt with just the aging Brittney Griner anchoring it. The Sun are due for regression after a dominant win over Chicago on Monday, so having to face the league’s second-best ATS team has me laying it with a hot Mystics squad.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 8-14 (-4.87 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
