Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Chase Burns Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:05 PM CT on MLB.TV
The Pirates just can’t touch Burns, it’s really as simple as that. The Cincinnati ace is hard to hit normally, but especially for the Pirates who have tried and failed miserably twice already this season. Burns in those two games has gone 12 innings of shutout ball, allowing just 4 total hits, and in his career against Pittsburgh their lineup is batting a cumulative .054 with a .227 OPS. No, that’s not a typo, and to make it worse for Pittsburgh, they had ONeil Cruz in those earlier matchups this year. The Pirates offense has not been the same since Cruz went on the shelf, and I think they’ll get dominated again by this elite pitching talent.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Jack Perkins Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:38 PM CT on MLB.TV
Perkins does not belong in a starter role, but since being forced into the rotation due to injuries, he’s been knocked around pretty consistently. All four of his starts have come this month, and he’s piled up a 7.50 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP while allowing every opponent to tag him for 3 or more earned runs. That includes his last outing on Sunday, when this Angels team got him for 4 runs, and I think they can do it again tonight. LA has been scoring pretty well despite Mike Trout being out of the lineup, and while they might strike out a lot, their all-or-nothing approach at the plate helps boost run production. At this plus-money return, I’ll bet on Perkins continuing to struggle in this unfamiliar starter job.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Marina Mabrey Over 23.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:00 PM CT on CBS
What does Mabrey do here for an encore after tying the WNBA single game record with 53 points on Thursday? Obviously this number is a bit inflated after that performance, but it didn’t exactly come out of nowhere for the Toronto guard. With Brittney Sykes out of the lineup she’s become the focal point of the offense, and just had 37 last week against Connecticut. She also put up 30 last month against this Mercury squad she’ll see again today, and it’s a Phoenix team that has a history of giving up massive outputs to lead guards. With little other option than to feed Mabrey, and on national TV no less, I think the Tempo get another big performance from her.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Kelsey Mitchell Over 23.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on CBS
Mabrey’s record game came against the Sparks who have another tough task on their hands tonight. They have to try to slow down the Fever without Caitlin Clark who will sit tonight, which sounds like good news unless you consider how Kelsey Mitchell should compensate for the absence. Mitchell is already on fire, averaging 24.2 PPG the past 5 games, and now will see her workload increase significantly with Clark out. There really is no other scoring option in the Indiana backcourt that will challenge Mitchell for shot volume, and this should be an up-tempo affair against a bad LA defense. With 6 games clearing this total already under her belt this season, look for Mitchell to take over tonight and turn in a massive game.
Degenerates
World Cup: Algeria/Austria Draw (+105; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on FS1
Most people have forgotten more about soccer than I’ll ever know about it, so I’m just passing along information here to interested parties. My understanding is that both teams benefit from a tie in this game, as both would advance to the next round as a result of neither winning outright. I smell a gentleman’s agreement here, and so does the betting market as the price on this has dropped significantly. But plus money is plus money, so if you feel like wading into the world of soccer betting, here’s a good opportunity.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 6-15 (-4.87 Units) – Recommend: Fade Hard
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
