Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 12:35 PM CT on MLB.TV
I’m not sure what to make of Brady Singer lately, who spent most of the season being the exact pitcher you’d expect, but then turned borderline elite this month. I have to think of this June success as fraudulent, especially when factoring in the level of competition he’s faced, so this game might be a perfect situation to get him back to normal.
Certainly when facing Reynolds, who owns him with a .375 average and 1.359 OPS for his career, and has a double, a triple, and two homers against the Cincy righty. Reynolds got a home run and triple in two at-bats against him in the previous meeting this season, and has been hot in June with a .318 average and 2.2 total bases per game, so I have to attack this plus-money price today.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:00 PM CT on CBS
I’m very surprised to see this number where it is. Bueckers has gotten hers in both meetings this season, even though the Lynx have come out on top in both games. I’m sure she saves a little extra for her hometown team, and will be highly motivated again today on national TV. Bueckers put up 23 and 27 in the previous meetings this season, shooting 55.2% from the floor and 54.5% from deep. She’s also hot right now after consecutive 25-plus point games, and I think she clears this total fairly easily.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Natasha Howard Over 16.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:00 PM CT on CBS
I’m also surprised by this number for Howard, who continues to make key contributions in Napheesa Collier’s absence. She’s averaging 17.5 PPG on the season, so right there it seems like this number is mispriced, but it’s also clear that Dallas has no answer for her. The two previous meetings this year have seen the Lynx forward put up 26 and 21 points, but it’s the efficiency that is wild as she’s shooting 79.2% from the floor in those games. Howard is incredibly efficient overall with 61.8% shooting this season but the Dallas games are truly amazing, and coming off consecutive 20-plus point games should set her up for more success today.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/Chicago Sky Over 178.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:00 PM CT on CBS
This second leg of a national TV doubleheader should see points, and I don’t want to hear any conspiracy theorist accusations about it, this is real. Besides, something is going on with the Sky, who suddenly can score while also continuing to be dreadful defensively. Their past 6 games have seen them erupt for 95.5 PPG despite spending most of the season near the bottom of the offensive efficiency rankings.
I think they can continue that today against a Las Vegas team whose defense I question, with the Aces ranked 9th in defensive efficiency. But Chicago is not going to stop the Aces, as that same 6-game stretch has seen their defense get shredded for 91.8 PPG. Scoring in the 90’s is what you need from at least one if not both teams to reach this total, and in what should be a showcase game for the Aces who might have Chennedy Carter back, I think this flies over the total.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Sydney Taylor Over 14.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
Arguably the biggest key for Chicago’s offensive success lately is the rookie Taylor going off. She’s averaged 20.8 PPG during this 6-game stretch, getting plenty of minutes for a young and shorthanded Sky squad. And when she gets minutes she pays it off, averaging 18.5 PPG on nights when she plays 20-plus minutes. I think she’ll get plenty of opportunity here, in what should be a high-possessions game, and can easily clear this fairly low number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 6-15 (-5.32 Units) – Recommend: Fade God Status Unlocked
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
