Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) San Diego Padres/Chicago Cubs Over 11.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on MLB.TV
When the wind is doing what it’s doing today at Wrigley, there’s simply one move to make. Every Cubs home game that’s gone wild this season has been because of the wind, and it’s blowing out to dead center on a very hot, humid day in Chicago. That will cause the ball to compress, jump, and fly, so all other factors take a back seat to the conditions tonight.
It helps to have two bad pitchers starting this game though, with Shota Imanaga going for Chicago, and Griffin Canning listed in some places as the Padres starter. If it is Canning, he should get rocked by a Cubs lineup that’s really heating up lately, scoring 7.7 runs per game the past 10 games. And they probably need those runs to support Imanaga, whose struggles at home have come back with a vengeance. The Padres offense can be really rough at times, but these conditions against a weak pitcher should help them contribute to getting this over the total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Angels/Seattle Mariners Over 7.5 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
Asking these offenses to do much of anything on a given night is often asking a lot. But there’s a good situation with starting pitchers here that I think both teams can take advantage of, and also capitalize on a very low total. Both teams are starting righties tonight, and both offenses are average to above average in their advanced metrics against right-handed pitching, with Seattle even ranking 5th in wRC+ this season.
And these are struggling righties, with Ryan Johnson coming off the scrap heap to fill innings for the Angels, and struggling considerably in his road game action so far. I think a big key though is the issues George Kirby has been having, as he’s viewed as just another part of this deep Mariners rotation. But that hasn’t been the case for a lot of this season, and he’s really struggling at home with a 4.56 ERA. The perception is that Seattle is where scoring goes to die, thus low totals like this one, but I see enough cracks in the starting pitching and then the pitiful LA bullpen to look at an over here.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
Marte comes into this game hot, having homered in 3 of his past 4 games, strong form that I’ll definitely take. It extends further back than that though, as he’s logged 2.4 bases per game over the past 15 games, and I think he continues to rake in this favorable matchup. Being back home raises his batting average by 25 points this season, but it’s facing San Fran starter Tyler Mahle that should give him the biggest boost. He just owns the Giants righty, posting a .533 average and 1.696 OPS for his career, with three doubles and two home runs, so I see a good opportunity to cash this even money return.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 9-15 (-4.62 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
