Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Mike Burrows Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 7:10 PM CT on MLB.TV
I make fun of the Triple-A Twins a little more than I probably should, and I need to give them some credit for an unexpected amount of run production this season. Minnesota is actually around a top-5 offense against righthanded pitching by most advanced metrics, including weighted run creation, but they probably won’t need anything special to jump on Mike Burrows here.
The Astros righty has been dreadful for most of the season, but especially at home where he owns a 7.05 ERA and .311 opponent batting average. He’s allowed multiple runs in every home start, and gone over this total in 5 of 7 this season, plus he was hit hard up at Target Field last month. Houston is just too short on options to banish Burrows from the starting rotation, so I think he has another poor outing against this surprisingly capable Twins offense.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Jackie Young Over 18.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video
I lean towards the Aces in this game, assuming A’ja Wilson is able to play. But I think her questionable status creates opportunities elsewhere, as the gravity she creates in the prop market holds down the numbers for her teammates. Young for example is underpriced in my opinion whether A’ja plays or not, as she’s been going off lately and would have to pick up a significant amount of the scoring load if Wilson is out.
With 5 straight games over this total, on 57.6% shooting, including the first meeting of the season against the Liberty, Young is playing extremely well right now. In this big game she’ll need to be a major factor again, and the depth of the Vegas backcourt helps pull attention away from her, so look for another game over this points total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-13 (-1.67 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
