Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
The Pirates got their offense back on track yesterday against some bad pitching, so I’m not going to miss an opportunity to keep betting overs with the best there is. Pittsburgh leads the league in record to the over, both overall and at home this season, so any time they’re at PNC Park I’m immediately thinking over. The fact that the wind is blowing out on a humid day only makes it more appealing, but the pitching is probably the biggest key.
Arizona will be starting Merrill Kelly, and while he’s had some better starts recently, this is not a spot that shapes up well for him. The Pirates just crush righties, sitting neck and neck with the Dodgers for best numbers in basically every metric. I think Pittsburgh jumps all over him, which they’ll need to if they’re going to support Mitch Keller who has been rough at home with a 5.68 ERA. His home starts are 7-4 over this total, with an average of 11.5 runs and only one instance of less than 9 runs, so I see the right setup for another over tonight.
MLB (1 Unit) Zack Wheeler Alt Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
Just know that every 5 days or so, when Zack Wheeler starts, I’ll be looking at his alternate strikeout props until further notice. The standard line of 6.5 is unplayable at prohibitive juice, so I’m forced to go up the ladder here, but you can’t threaten me with a good time. Wheeler is already registering 10.5 K’s-per-nine innings for the season, but he’s on an absolute mission since getting snubbed for the All-Star game.
Strikeout totals of 10, 14, 10, and 9 since he locked in are paying nicely if you’re betting alt’s, and I think he victimizes a struggling Marlins team here. Miami is notably losers of 12 straight, as the offense has dropped off a cliff, and even though they aren’t prone to striking out a lot, I just have to expect them to keep flailing. Wheeler’s 9 K’s last time out came against a Dodgers team that never strikes out, and he’s already logged 8 and 9 punchouts in his starts against the Marlins this season, so this number and the other escalator numbers below are worth playing with confidence.
0.5 Unit – Alt Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+210)
0.25 Unit – Alt Over 9.5 Strikeouts (+400)
MLB (1 Unit) Chicago Cubs/St Louis Cardinals Over 10 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 6:45 PM CT on MLB.TV
If you’re not in the Midwest experiencing this weather, consider yourself lucky. I’m going to use it to my advantage here, as it’s creating the perfect hitting conditions in St Louis for two good offenses facing two questionable pitchers. It’ll be around 100 degrees at Busch Stadium, plus humidity, which creates the perfect conditions for the ball to jump off bats, and a wind blowing out to center is icing on the weather cake.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chicago do the most work in getting over this total, as they’re a top-5 offense in every metric against lefties like Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore. The Cardinal lefty is carrying a 5.18 ERA that should actually be worse by expected metrics, so I think he could get knocked around here. St Louis is just average against lefties, but this is David Peterson we’re talking about, someone the Mets didn’t even want to keep around. I think the Cardinals can get to him and a weak bullpen, helping to send this over the big number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-12 (+1.68 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
