Sam Darnold’s Super Bowl win will hover over the Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback competition between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy, and long into the season.
It’s only natural. Minnesota Timberwolves fans just watched Karl-Anthony Towns win an NBA championship after the Wolves traded him to the New York Knicks. Randy Moss won a Super Bowl with the New England Patriots around the time that Kevin Garnett and David Ortiz also won championships in Boston.
Minnesota fans naturally think about the player that got away. Darnold’s departure isn’t the first time a player left the Twin Cities and thrived, and it won’t be the last. The only mitigating factor in this case would be the Vikings finding a franchise quarterback capable of winning a Super Bowl. It’s easier to process Darnold’s success if Minnesota also becomes a contender.
Therefore, it’s important to process how we got here.
Think of where you were when the Los Angeles Rams eliminated the Vikings from the playoffs two years ago. The parallels were eerie. Like the New York Giants in 2022, the Vikings entered the Rams playoff game as 2.5-point favorites and lost. Like in 2022, Minnesota went from a team that people believed would hover around .500 to winning 13 and 14 games, respectively. The Vikings also left the playoff game against the Rams wondering whether they had the right quarterback, just as they did with Kirk Cousins in 2022.
Cousins set a floor for the Vikings, starting when they signed him in 2018. The Vikings were coming off a run to the NFC Championship Game in 2017, led by Mike Zimmer’s stout defense. If Cousins could be their Trent Dilfer or Joe Flacco, they had a championship team.
In hindsight, that’s not what happened, and they held on to Cousins too long. He became an aging high-floor, low-ceiling quarterback on a team with a diminishing defense, which isn’t a championship formula. However, his value was his steady play under center, which is difficult to find in the NFL, and the Vikings still haven’t found his replacement.
Minnesota drafted J.J. McCarthy to be Cousins’ successor. McCarthy profiled similarly to Cousins in that he had many strengths but few standout traits. However, he had led Michigan to the national championship, their first since 1997, the year before the Vikings drafted him. He appeared to be a proven winner who Kevin O’Connell could mold into his franchise quarterback.
Everyone knows the story from there. McCarthy suffered a non-contact injury in his first preseason game with the Vikings and became the first first-round pick since the draft started in 1967 to miss his entire rookie season. Darnold replaces him and leads the Vikings to a 14-win season while reviving his career. A year later, he wins the Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks.
We may never fully know why the Vikings moved on from Darnold. However, they likely felt like his first-read-dependent, turnover-prone play capped the team’s potential. Minnesota had also drafted McCarthy and worked with him behind the scenes to prepare him for last season.
Darnold, 29, is in his prime. Still, McCarthy, 23, represented the promise of a young top-10 pick coming off a national championship. However, the floor fell out underneath the Vikings with McCarthy under center. He suffered multiple injuries, including a high ankle sprain that kept him out from Week 3 to Week 9. McCarthy didn’t look like a franchise quarterback upon his return, and didn’t play his best until Minnesota fell out of the playoff picture.
Minnesota likely brought Kyler Murray in to hedge against McCarthy. As a 28-year-old, two-time Pro Bowler, Murray will almost certainly beat out McCarthy for the starting job in camp. Still, he’s more likely to represent the floor than the ceiling.
The Arizona Cardinals drafted him first-overall in 2019. However, they moved on from him with over $30 million left on his extension in the offseason because he didn’t become their franchise quarterback. He likely moves the ball and keeps the offense afloat, but he may not fully elevate it.
Ultimately, the Vikings need competent quarterback play to compete next year. However, many players can create a floor for them, including Carson Wentz. Finding the player who can raise their ceiling has proven more difficult. It’s why Minnesota’s quarterback conundrum continues, which is especially unfortunate when Darnold raised the ceiling in Seattle.
