After “mutually parting ways” with Derek Falvey in late January, Minnesota Twins controlling owner Tom Pohlad said he wanted to “get off this ‘payroll’ thing for a second” and revisit it later in the year.
However, he brought the subject up again during spring training earlier this week. Pohlad said the Twins were in on Framber Valdez before the Detroit Tigers signed him to a three-year, $115 million contract.
“He was the best pitcher on the market at that point,” Pohlad explained. “We would’ve had a hell of a 1-2-3 punch [in the rotation], and it would have been crazy not to look at that. It would’ve been fun to make a splash and show the organization and the fans that we’re committed. I do know that payroll matters to people.”
Pohlad said that on Feb. 16, the day before Pablo López left a live bullpen session with a significant UCL tear that will require season-ending surgery. Viewed through the lens of López’s injury, Valdez is a necessity. However, before López’s injury, adding Valdez was superfluous, kind of like signing Josh Donaldson when they missed out on Zack Wheeler in 2020.
There’s an adage in baseball that a team can never have enough pitching. Still, the Twins also don’t have shortstop depth behind Brooks Lee, who’s not a strong defensive player. They also traded nearly 40% of their roster last year, so they’re throwing together a bullpen without an established setup guy or a closer.
Ownership’s decision to slash payroll has created many needs. Therefore, Minnesota’s payroll discussion isn’t about payroll so much as it is about trust in ownership.
The Twins captured everyone’s attention in 2019, when the Bomba Squad hit an MLB record 307 home runs. They followed it up with another AL Central title in 2020. However, Alex Colomé blew three saves in April 2021. Minnesota was 9-16 on May 1 and 22-32 on June 1; the season ended almost as soon as it started. A year later, they were 67-62 on Aug. 31 and collapsed, finishing 78-84.
Still, the Twins spent a record $168 million in 2023 to try to get back into the playoffs. They doubled down on depth, adding Donovan Solano late in camp. Their rotation was so deep that Bailey Ober had to start the season in Triple-A.
However, despite their depth and Royce Lewis’ grand-slam magic, the Twins were 45-46 going into the All-Star Break. Kyle Gibson and the Baltimore Orioles beat them 15-2 in their final game of the first half. Minnesota hovered around .500 for most of the season. They finished with 87 wins, even after going 18-9 in September.
Until September hit, it seemed almost impossible that the 2023 team would become the first to win a playoff series since 2002. Still, they did. Fans packed Target Field and provided a distinct home-field advantage. It felt like 2019 again.
Then, ownership slashed payroll.
“We have to right-size our business,” former controlling owner Joe Pohlad told WCCO radio.
Because of the COVID-shortened 2020 season and attendance restrictions in 2020 and 2021, the Twins never could fully capitalize on the Bomba Squad’s success. They fell victim to the cable bundle when FanDuel Sports’ parent company paid them less to broadcast the 2024 season and eventually blacked them out. In 2023, they fell short of their goal of two million ticket sales because walk-up attendance was low until September, when the team’s mediocre play improved.
However, attendance is a lagging indicator. People buy season ticket packages after a successful season, and teams sell over 90% of tickets before the season starts. The cable bundle is an issue for most teams. Aside from big-market teams like the New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, and Los Angeles Dodgers, almost every team has less television revenue as we move into the streaming age.
Slashing payroll and then asking fans to buy tickets and MLB.TV streaming packages is bad business. With less depth, the Twins collapsed again in 2024. Last year, they traded nearly two-fifths of their roster in a fire sale. Target Field attendance has sunk to an all-time low.
“We made what we thought at the time was a responsible financial decision, and we obviously failed to consider the long-term impact of that decision, and the short-term impact of that decision, frankly,” Tom Pohlad told WCCO in December after taking over for his younger brother Joe. “We sucked the air right out of our fan base, and it did significant damage to our brand and to our family from a confidence standpoint. Plain and simple, we got it wrong.”
Instead of opening a contention window after advancing in the playoffs, they closed it. In the offseason, the Twins moved on from Rocco Baldelli and Derek Falvey. That’s something owners typically do once they feel their team has stalled out.
However, Baldelli and Falvey couldn’t win because ownership slashed payroll. According to Spotrac, the Twins have a $119.2 million payroll. That’s lower than the Pittsburgh Pirates ($120.7 million), Milwaukee Brewers ($129), and the peripatetic Athletics ($131.9).
The Detroit Tigers have a $236.7 million payroll. At one point in the offseason, Detroit was spending nearly as much on its pitchers ($87 million) as the Twins were on their roster ($92 million).
Given their market size, the Twins should be spending like the Seattle Mariners ($181.2 million), who reached the ALCS last year. The Kansas City Royals, who reside in a meaningfully smaller city, are spending $181.7 million on their roster this year. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s payroll is $75 million below MLB average.
The Twins can’t spend like the Yankees or the Dodgers. Still, they should spend more than the Pirates or Athletics. To win in a mid-sized market, they must extend their hitters, develop pitching, and use free agency to fill in gaps. Minnesota must open contention windows, not shut them prematurely. They can’t outspend everyone, but the billionaire owners can’t cry poor.
So, the Twins’ payroll problem isn’t really about payroll. It’s about trust, and it will be hard for anyone to trust the Pohlads after 40 years of ownership. Signing Framber Valdez wouldn’t have changed that. Only years of consistent investment and winning will.
