We wait all year for this. We wait all year for the playoffs to begin, a time when anything is possible as long as you’re invited to the dance.
And this time around, we kick things off with Packers-Bears, for just the third time ever in the NFL’s oldest rivalry. What more could you want? Other than Micah Parsons, Tucker Kraft, and Devonte Wyatt in uniform, of course.
The seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers are 1.5-point favorites against the second-seeded Bears in Chicago, and that tells you all you need to know about who these teams really are. On the one hand, you have the Bears, authors of six fourth-quarter comebacks, most of them miraculous. They could easily have lost to the Las Vegas Raiders, the Washington Commanders, the New York Giants, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Pittsburgh Steelers with Mason Rudolph (not to mention the Packers with Malik Willis).
They were an onside kick recovery and a long kickoff return away from going 0-6 in the division. They’re a team that has feasted on turnovers, finishing plus-22, but are just 2-6 in games they don’t take at least two away. Look, they’re ahead of schedule and a team on the rise. But they are not as talented a team as the Packers, who have the better quarterback and the better defense.
They also have a better running back. It’s not a mystery why Green Bay’s red-zone offense has gone AWOL, including an appalling 0-5 in their last game against the Bears. Josh Jacobs, who fumbled inside the five in that game while playing hurt, has not been himself since injuring his knee on the disgraceful Met Life Stadium turf in November.
He said this week that it’s the best he’s felt in six weeks. While that likely doesn’t mean he’s 100%, it means he’s healthy enough to be a difference-maker for a Packers offense that desperately needs his physicality at this time of year, especially in the red zone.
His presence should keep Chicago’s defense honest and allow Jordan Love to cook. The biggest uncertainty for the Pack is Zach Tom‘s health. He’s questionable and sounded more like a sure thing to play earlier in the week. We may not know his availability until 90 minutes before kickoff. His return would give Love a much better shot at clean pockets on Saturday night, where he has been the most productive in the league this season.
With Christian Watson and Jayden Reed healthy, Love should have his choice of explosive playmakers to target. They’ll count on Romeo Doubs to move the chains on third down, and who knows, maybe Luke Musgrave will step up in a big spot. Expect Jacobs to figure in the passing game too, as he did against the Denver Broncos.
The Packers will put points on the board — the key is to make sure they cash in from the red zone and don’t settle for field goals. I think Love channels his ’23 playoff form and does just that.
The big question is how Green Bay’s defense rebounds from its embarrassing performance against the Baltimore Ravens. Was it an outlier, or is the unit disintegrating before our eyes? Their performance against a Vikings team that was trying to win was encouraging, even if it was mostly backups on the field.
For the most part, they’ve done well against the Bears, especially in the first half, where Chicago has scored a total of three points in two games. It starts with stopping the two-headed rushing attack because you know Ben Johnson would like nothing more than to run it down Green Bay’s throats, chew up the clock, and keep Love and Co. off the field.
Getting Evan Williams and his run support prowess back (he missed the Week 17 matchup) is huge, and they must get bounce-back games from Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper. Newly acquired DT Jonathan Ford, a former Packers draft pick, will likely get a shot to show what he can do against the team that cut him loose last week.
The other new addition on defense, Trevon Diggs, will likely start alongside Keisean Nixon at corner. Diggs held his own against the Vikings and has to be a better option than Carrington Valentine. Why do I see a pick coming from him on Saturday night? It would be his first of the season. Got a hunch.
We’ll see how much Jeff Hafley chooses to blitz Caleb Williams. You can’t overstate the playoff experience advantage the Packers have at QB in this matchup. First-time starters usually have a rough time, and Hafley will do all he can to force Williams to make a mistake or two. Green Bay knows how dangerous he can be when he escapes the pocket, but he also takes some questionable chances. The Pack has to take advantage of those.
He’ll get Rome Odunze back for this one, and rookie Luther Burden III looks like he’s going to be a problem for a long time. Still, I’m most concerned about the emergence of rookie tight end Colston Loveland, who’s gone over 90 yards in the last two games. The Pack has struggled to contain tight ends for much of the season.
Perhaps Lukas Van Ness will build off his strong performance against the Ravens and make some impact plays. Maybe Kingsley Enagbare or rookie Barryn Sorrell gets to Williams. Or maybe Rashan Gary will channel a pre-2025 version of himself and get to the quarterback. I mean, a guy can dream, can’t he?
Both teams had early Week Five byes. It’s been a long grind; they’re tired and beat up. The Packers earned a second bye last week, giving their guys time to rest and heal. The Bears played a tough divisional game. They needed to win to secure the No. 2 seed. Chicago lost, got the higher seed anyway, but now has to turn around and play on a short week. Advantage: Packers.
Look, it’s pretty simple. First, the Packers need to protect the ball. They’ve been one of the best, with just 13 giveaways all season, the third-fewest in the league. Second, they have to contain the running game. Third, they must be successful in the red zone. Fourth, contain Caleb Williams and don’t let him work his magic outside the pocket. Fifth, put the ball in Love’s hands and let him cook against that ratty defense, which ranked 29th in the NFL.
Get off to a fast start, don’t take your foot off the gas for 60 minutes, and avoid special teams catastrophes. Do all of that and the Packers will coast. Of course, they won’t accomplish all of those things. But they’ll succeed at most of them, and it will add up to a wildcard win over the hated Bears.
Packers 27
Bears 20
